They Said It - Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members
31 July 2023
They Said It - Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is an overview of recent comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members. We include only comments made since the Governing Council meeting of 27 July, but earlier comments can still be seen in versions up to that of 24 July.
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Christine Lagarde (ECB)
30 July 2023
‘We have covered a lot of ground and have made great progress in this fight against inflation. We are moving towards our goal. We will only know when we have reached this goal – a medium-term inflation target of 2% − by looking at the economic and financial data. And we will base our actions on our assessment of these data. I hear some people say that the final rate hike will take place in September. There could be a further hike of the policy rate or perhaps a pause. A pause, whenever it occurs, in September or later, would not necessarily be definitive. Inflation must return durably to its target. We are in an environment of uncertainty and will reassess the situation and our action on a meeting-by-meeting basis.’
‘Our aim is to lower inflation and our primary mandate is to maintain price stability in the medium term. That necessarily involves a decline in activity. The ideal solution, which is known as a soft landing, is a moderate lowering of activity in tandem with a significant fall in inflation. The second-quarter GDP figures for France, Germany and Spain are quite encouraging. They support our scenario of GDP growth of 0.9% in the euro area this year.’
‘Inflation is undoubtedly falling: we were at 10.6% in October 2022 and came back down to 5.5% in June. The decline is being driven particularly by the fall in energy price inflation. And monetary policy has clearly begun to have an impact on lowering inflation. You see that in the credit data, in both the interest rates – as our fellow citizens know – and in credit volumes, which are falling, as well as in firms’ demand for loans. We are also beginning to see it in the real economy: in the real estate sector and with regard to investment. We pay close attention to the inflation felt by our fellow citizens and also look very carefully at the mechanisms underlying inflation in order to analyse the root cause of the price increase. At present, the services sector (catering, IT, telecoms, transport...) is more resistant than the others to our monetary policy.’
‘If you look at inflation expectations and the wage increases negotiated collectively and individually, there is no sign of a wage-price spiral emerging. But our projections expect firms to absorb part of the cost of the wage increases in their margins.’
‘Inflation continues to decline but is still expected to remain too high for too long. The Governing Council therefore today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25bp. Our future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target. We will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, our interest rate decisions will continue to be based on our assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation, and the strength of monetary policy transmission.’
‘We say “our future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target. So, some of you may have noticed a slight change of a verb. And that is not just random or irrelevant. And I think it is predicated on our determination to be data dependent. So, I have said on many occasions that we had ground to cover or that we have more ground to cover. What I am saying here is that data and our assessment of data will actually tell us whether and how much ground we have to cover. So we are deliberately data-dependent and we have an open mind as to what the decisions will be in September and in subsequent meetings. Because this determination based on data might vary from one month to the other. So we might hike and we might hold, and what is decided in September is not definitive. It may vary from one meeting to the other. So I hope it is very clear that we are not in the domain of forward guidance but we are very strongly rooted in our determination to break the back of inflation and to take inflation back to 2% in the medium term on a sustainable basis. And to do that, we will be informed by data, we will analyse the data and we will then decide at that point in time. We will have the inflation outlook, we will have two readings of inflation with all the underlying dissection and understanding of it. And we will have even more understanding of our monetary policy transmission. And that will be repeated every Governing Council after every Governing Council, so that we can make sure as I said that we break the back of inflation.’
‘…transmission of monetary policy is one of the three metrics that we use in order to determine our monetary policy stance, the strength of monetary policy transmission. And we look at it that way. We see it essentially as a two-legged process. The first leg is transmission to financing at large. What is the impact on lending, lending for banks, lending by banks to both corporates and households? And we try to measure that as accurately as possible by looking at volumes of loans, by looking at rates, by looking at obviously the bank lending survey that many of you have commented on yesterday, which informs us about what banks anticipate and in which areas, in which directions they expect to either increase or reduce the volumes of loans and reassess their risks in relation to borrowers. So that’s the first leg and there are clear indications that our monetary policy is transmitted though that channel. The next one, which is the second leg, is transmission to the economy and from financing to the economy. How quickly does that move, how efficient is it. And we are really now beginning to see transmission materialising, whether you look at investment in housing, whether you look at investment altogether, there is obviously a decline on those two accounts. Still too early and there is certainly more in the pipeline, but we are definitely seeing monetary policy being transmitted and being transmitted strongly. That’s obviously the case for the first leg and it is now also beginning to be the case in the second one.’
‘But what I can assure you of is that we are not going to cut, that is a definite no! But on the other side, it could be hike, it could be a pause. And if it is a pause, it would not necessarily be for an extended period of time, because as I said, it will vary from meeting to meeting, because we continue to decide on a meeting by meeting basis every time informed by the data. I hope it is as clear as I can be, because we are, and that was absolutely endorsed by the Governing Council, which has validated this decision unanimously, determined to operate on that basis.’
‘Our key tool, our key instrument in the current circumstances, given the level of inflation that we have at the moment, is interest rates. So there will be no trade-off between either interest rates or QT. Interest rates are the main tool and the most efficient one. So it is the one that we will be using. There is the possibility of a hike, there is the possibility of a pause. It’s a decisive maybe. But don’t expect me to go one way or the other. As I said, the burden of proof is going to be the data and the ultimate point that we are determined to reach is the 2% inflation.’
Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
NO UPDATE
Luis de Guindos (ECB)
NO UPDATE
Joachim Nagel (Bundesbank)
28 July 2023
‘High inflation is weighing on the euro area economy - on citizens and businesses. At the same time, the labour market is robust.’
‘We expect high inflation in the euro area to weaken, but it is not yet defeated. Core inflation is persistent and therefore our monetary policy must be even more persistent. We need staying power.’
‘We will decide in September whether we need to raise interest rates further, based on the data and projections available then. We need a sufficiently high interest rate level and we need to maintain it for as long as necessary.’
François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
28 July 2023
‘The persistence of underlying inflation that is still too high justifies a further rise in interest rates to 3.75%, a level that is still much lower in Europe than that of the US central bank (5.25/5.50). But our growing confidence in the path of disinflation towards 2% by 2025 is based on the good monetary policy transmission underway. Given the time needed for full transmission, perseverance is now the first key virtue. The second is pragmatism: our decisions at forthcoming meetings will henceforth be open, and will be guided entirely by future economic data, as Christine Lagarde indicated yesterday.’
Ignazio Visco (Banca d’Italia)
NO UPDATE
Pablo Hernández de Cos (Banco de España)
NO UPDATE
Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank)
NO UPDATE
Pierre Wunsch (Belgian National Bank)
NO UPDATE
Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
NO UPDATE
Tuomas Välimäki (Bank of Finland)
NO UPDATE
Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
28 July 2023
‘In general, it can be said that the slowdown in the price increase in the euro area to 5.5% in June has been quite in line with the latest forecast of the European Central Bank. At the same time, the latest news about the state of the economy in Europe has been rather worse than expected, and the near-term outlook for the economy also seems more pessimistic than a few months ago. This is indicated, among other things, by this week's news of the once again falling purchasing managers' indices, which are considered good indicators of the economy's near-term performance. When talking about the reasons for the continued rapid price increase, it is no longer possible to refer to high energy prices or other, so to speak, external factors for the euro area. The prices of various services and goods are rising, and behind this is the increase in input prices for entrepreneurs, a relatively fast increase in wage costs, but also until recently very decent profit margins. The sustained rapid rise in food prices will most likely subside in the second half of the year, as the prices of several food commodities have already fallen on the world market. However, the risks here are related to difficult weather conditions for agriculture this year, as well as Russia's decision not to fulfil the grain agreement with Ukraine. This may mean that the rise in food prices will remain high even longer. The interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank so far are clearly having an effect - the interest rates of both bank loans and deposits have risen, the volume of new loans has decreased, and apparently higher interest rates have already generally reduced demand in the economy. Bad news for exporting companies selling their goods and services outside the euro area has been the difficult recovery of the Chinese economy after the pandemic crisis and the almost 10% appreciation of the euro exchange rate against the US dollar compared to the autumn low point. However, we can talk about a still strong labour market, which is indicated by the record low unemployment in the euro area, hand in hand with a relatively brisk wage increase. We see the same in Estonia, where the economy as a whole has not yet returned to growth, but people's incomes are already growing faster than prices. Generally, a generally weak economic situation leads to slower price increases. Less demand for various goods and services also means less opportunity to raise prices. One of the key questions now is whether the already sharply increased interest rates, hand in hand with the weak economic outlook, are sufficient for the price increase in the euro area to slow down within a reasonable time to 2%, which is the inflation target of the European Central Bank. The central bank's main goal is, of course, to get price increases under control. All people and companies are acutely aware of the problems caused by the rapid rise in prices. None of us want to see such a reduction in purchasing power as the people of Estonia experienced last year. Also, fortunately, the situation is already normalising for entrepreneurs who, until recently, had serious difficulties with planning their activities due to supply difficulties and unpredictable price increases in production costs. The strength of the gradual recovery of the euro area economy also depends on the rate of price increase slowdown, in addition to the positive impetus provided by the return to stronger growth of the global economy and the improvement of people's purchasing power in the euro area. But what can be expected from the European Central Bank in the coming months and how much higher can interest rates still go? Compared to the last few sessions of the European Central Bank Governing Council, the situation has changed. In the past, the need to keep raising interest rates in order to slow down the rapid rise in prices was so clear that it was already possible to promise it in a very firm tone. However, at the current level of interest rates, the next decisions are no longer as obvious. It is not in the interest of central bankers to raise interest rates higher than necessary to control inflation. At the same time, we cannot afford to err in the other direction and risk the continuation of a rapid price increase in the long term. The search for the right balance now awaits the European Central Bank Governing Council at every next session. Including at the next meeting in mid-September, if in the meantime we have received additional information about the state of the economy and trends in price increases during the summer months. Until then, however, I don't recommend believing anyone who claims to know how high interest rates can go and when we can expect interest rates to drop. There are simply too many variables that can affect the performance of the euro area economy.’
Boštjan Vasle (Banka Slovenije)
28 July 2023
‘…according to the latest macroeconomic forecasts, price growth is moderating, with core inflation remaining high. Similarly, the economic cooling of the euro area is not yet reflected in the labour market, which represents the central risk that core inflation will persist at higher levels for a longer period of time.’
‘The tightening of monetary policy is increasingly reflected in the banking sector as well. Lending interest rates continue to rise in line with the increase in key interest rates, and lending activity has slowed down significantly, mainly due to the decline in demand for loans.’
‘…I emphasize that our future decisions will continue to ensure that interest rate levels are sufficiently restrictive for as long as it takes for inflation to return to our 2% target in time. As before, each step will depend on the current situation, especially on economic and financial data, the movement of basic inflation and the effectiveness of our measures.’
Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
29 July 2023
‘It [tighter monetary policy] is working. Not as good as compared to a case where it would have been a demand-led inflation. But even in a supply-side inflation, monetary policy has helped to contain inflationary expectations, which are now very close to 2%. To a large extent, this is because of monetary policy, which also has so far prevented a spiral between wages and prices.’
‘For Europe, the main task is to bring inflation down to 2% as soon as possible. We think we will be very close to 2% into 2025. We are pleased to see inflation falling. Now, of course, the question is to have a soft landing, to avoid a recession in Europe and to have financial stability, that is healthy banks. The world is complicated, full of uncertainty.’
‘That is why I said before that we should not continue raising interest rates, because a combination of still high inflation, low growth, uncertainty and rising interest rates might cause something to break and we do not want that. That's why we are now on a thin edge. We have to be very careful with monetary policy, with fiscal policy. All policies should be available to achieve the target of bringing inflation down, but with a soft landing and financial stability, this is the important thing. It is complicated because of the uncertainty worldwide.’
‘It looks like we are very close to the end of rate hikes. In any case, I think if there is one more — and I hardly see it — in September, I think we will stop there. But I also see September's 25bp as weak.’
‘[Rates will stay at peak a] few months for sure. Everything will of course depend on the economy, on the dynamics of inflation in the first place, the dynamics of the economy in the second place and the problems if any in the financial sector. Because when you raise interest rates too much, yes, for a while the banks make profits, but on the other hand, with the reduction in demand for loans from households and businesses and the strain on the economy from the increase in interest rates, this may create a new generation of red loans.’
Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
28 July 2023
‘Yesterday's expected and ninth consecutive increase in interest rates brought us within reach of the peak of our efforts. In other words, we are nearing the end of the tightening of the monetary policy setting necessary to restore price stability. It is great that inflation continues to fall, from the perspective of households, businesses and the economy as a whole. However, we will not see a drop to the desired level of 2% either this year or next year. In the case of Slovakia, this decline will most likely last much longer. While headline inflation continues to decelerate, primarily due to external factors, core inflation remains record high. From my point of view, this means the need for extreme vigilance in the future. It is core inflation that hides risks for overall inflation. It is the core inflation numbers that show that we have not yet won. I continue to see the risks of inflation clearly on the upside. Despite the anaemic growth of the Eurozone economy, the labour market remains "hot". The lack of people in the labour market, combined with high inflation, pushes up wages, which helps consumption and affects prices. It is the people and households with the lowest incomes who suffer the most from high prices, and the sooner we deal with high inflation, the better. We continue to live in uncertainty, both in terms of inflation and the economy. The impact of the collapse of the validity of the Black Sea Grain Agreement on prices cannot yet be fully evaluated at this time. We will see what the impact will be on the commodity market and on food prices. Endless heat and drought will also take their toll on food prices. We do not yet know the cumulative impact of tightening in full force on the economy. We are continuously evaluating it and will be smarter in the fall. The closer we are to the summit, the more important it is to comprehensively evaluate the situation. I don't have an answer for what will come in September. Today, I would say that our mission is still not accomplished and that we should continue with a firm step on the way to the top. If we were to take a break in September, it would be premature to consider it automatically the end of the cycle. This will be decided by the incoming data on the economy.’
Mário Centeno (Banco de Portugal)
NO UPDATE
Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
NO UPDATE
Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
28 July 2023
‘A pause in September doesn’t mean there won’t be hikes going forward. Perhaps there will be a pause in September, but we may need to hike again in October.’
Rates are ‘close to a peak or at the peak’.
‘I wouldn’t expect any fast cuts on interest rates. I have doubts on cuts in the first half. That doesn’t sound like a probable scenario to me.’
‘When you’re close to a peak, close to a terminal rate, there are more alternatives for decision making. It’s not immediately obvious [whether there will be a hike in September].’
Robert Holzmann (Austrian National Bank)
NO UPDATE
Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
NO UPDATE
Gaston Reinesch (Central Bank of Luxembourg)
NO UPDATE
Constantinos Herodotou (Central Bank of Cyprus)
NO UPDATE