ECB Hawk-Dove Ranking: Council Becoming Less Hawkish
9 May 2023
By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Econostream has updated our hawk-dove ranking to take into account the passage of the last monetary policy meeting, so that the columns indicating voting status include only future meetings – as of today, 15 June, 27 July and 14 September.
In addition, we have re-ranked three Governing Council members, namely Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau (slightly less hawkish, so now almost neutral), Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno (very dovish, moderately more so than previously) and Bank of Estonia Governor Madis Müller (still very hawkish, but slightly less so).
The average hawkishness/dovishness for the entire Governing Council has thus dropped slightly, but still remains in hawkish territory.
As the Council turns increasingly less hawkish, we expect the ranking to reflect this. However, we neither rush to modify rankings nor tend to move in large steps, as we want to be reasonably certain that a given policymaker’s apparent shift in attitude is genuine.