They Said It About Policy Tightening - Recent Comments of ECB Governing Council Members

13 February 2023

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The following is a compendium of comments made by European Central Bank Governing Council members related to the appropriate pace of upcoming ECB monetary policy tightening. We include only comments made since the December 15 Council meeting.


de Cos (Banco de España)


de Guindos (ECB)



Centeno (Banco de Portugal)


Holzmann (Austrian National Bank)


Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)


Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)


Knot (Dutch National Bank)


Lagarde (ECB)


Lane (ECB)


Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)


Müller (Eesti Pank)


Nagel (Bundesbank)


Panetta (ECB)


Rehn (Bank of Finland)


Schnabel (ECB)


Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)


Stournaras (Bank of Greece)


Vasle (Banka Slovenije)


Villeroy (Banque de France)


Visco (Banca d’Italia)


Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)


Wunsch (National Bank of Belgium)


Christine Lagarde (ECB)
02 February 2023

‘In view of the underlying inflation pressures, we intend to raise interest rates by another 50bp at our next monetary policy meeting in March and we will then evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy. … In any event, our future policy rate decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.’

‘I would just remind you that our decision is not the decision for March. We’re taking a decision as of now, which is to raise all three interest rates by 50bp.’

‘…we intend – which is a strong word; it’s not an absolute, irrevocable, unconditional commitment, but it’s a strong word – we intend to raise by 50bp, and that is what was meant in December by this steady pace reference that you find, yet again, in the monetary policy statement. So this has been the continuity. Where we have consistency is consistency with the communication that we had back in December, and with any communication that I have expressed ever since, and it’s totally consistent with the view that we reached in a very, very large consensus today, that it should be 50 this time around, it is intended to be 50 in March.’

‘Now, you will say, “Well, yes, but what about after March? Does that mean that you have reached the pinnacle or the peak?” No. We know that we have ground to cover. We know that we are not done. What we are saying is that, as we will receive projections, we will need to assess what rates, what level, at what pace, are needed in order to do the two things which are embedded in my expression, ‘stay the course.’ The first one is to raise significantly into restrictive levels and stay there for sufficiently long so that we are confident that at those rates we will actually deliver the 2% objective medium-term that we have set for ourselves, and which is delivering on our mandate. Those were the themes that we debated. I have to tell you that there was general agreement on the fact that the 50bp this time around and the 50bp in March were legitimate on the basis of, particularly in March, of the underlying inflation pressure that we know will continue.’

‘…we have all scenarios available to decide that March actually warrants a 50bp increase. This is what we are saying when we say we “intend” to, which is why the word is pretty strong.’

‘Now, you will say, “Is that consistent with the meeting-by-meeting approach?” Let’s call a spade a spade. Meeting-by-meeting is going to be applied on the basis of data, but when we have data that is sufficiently strong, and when we are sufficiently far away from what we expect will be the appropriate rate to reach the 2%, it is completely legitimate to express an intention in a relatively forceful way. An intention is not, as I said, a 100% commitment, but it’s a pretty strong determination, and I can’t think of scenarios, unless they were quite extreme, where that would not happen.’

23 January 2023

‘…we have made it clear that ECB interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive, and stay at those levels for as long as necessary.’

15 December 2022

‘…we judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target.’

‘It is pretty much obvious that, on the basis of the data that we have at the moment, significant rise at a steady pace means that we should expect to raise interest rates at a 50-basis-point pace for a period of time.’

‘Based on the information that we have available today, that predicates another 50-basis-point rate hike at our next meeting, and possibly at the one after that, and possibly thereafter, but everything will also be determined by the review of data. So don’t assume that it’s a one-shot 50; it’s more than that. I don’t know how many more times. So it shouldn’t be regarded as the new normal, but in the current circumstances, we believe that this the right approach on a steady-pace basis.’


Isabel Schnabel (ECB)
10 February 2023

‘…we will stay the course in raising interest rates to bring inflation back to our 2% target in a timely manner.’

‘Our policy rates have gone up by 3 percentage points over the past seven months. And we still have ground to cover.’

‘Our decisions will be based on incoming data.’

‘We cannot yet claim victory in taming inflation. That’s why we need to stay the course and raise rates significantly further. Whether another 50bp hike is needed will depend on incoming data and our assessment of the inflation outlook.’

07 February 2023

‘At the same time, we have announced that we intend to raise the key interest rates by 50bp in March as well. And the question is, of course, what happens after that. And in principle, we have to answer two questions. The first question is, how high do we actually have to go? So what does it mean for interest rates to reach a sufficiently restrictive level? And to decide that, we ultimately have to assess whether monetary policy is actually working. So far, we see very little of that. In the meantime, we are seeing a tightening in the credit market, in credit conditions and now also in credit volumes, but we cannot yet see that monetary policy is actually taking effect to such an extent that we can hope that inflation will return to our inflation target of 2% in the medium term. This means that we will look very closely at what is happening in the labour market, what is happening with investments, what is the general economic development. The second question we have to ask ourselves is how long do we have to stay at this restrictive level?’

10 January 2023

‘We judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our 2% medium-term target.’


Philip Lane (ECB)
17 January 2023

‘…now we have the policy rate at around 2%, which is in the “ballpark” of neutral. Yet we are still not where the risks become more two-sided or symmetric. So, we need to raise rates more. Once we’ve made further progress, the risks will be more two-sided, where will have to balance the risks of doing too much versus doing too little. This is not just an issue about the next meeting or the next couple of meetings, it’s going to be an issue for the next year or two. It’s important to remember that we meet every six weeks. We will have to make sure we take a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach, to make sure we adjust to the evolution of the two risks. What does that mean? We have to keep an open mind on the appropriate level of interest rates. The big error would be maintaining a misdiagnosis for too long. The risk is not what happens in one meeting or in two meetings. What happened in the 1970s was a misdiagnosis over a long period of time. The issue here is flexibility in both directions to make sure that policy is adjusted in a timely manner, rather than maintaining a fixed view of the world for too long.’

6 January 2023

‘…we judge that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to our two per cent medium-term target.’


Luis de Guindos (ECB)
08 February 2023

‘We increased our policy rates by 0.5 percentage points last week, and will very likely raise them by another 0.5 percentage points at our next meeting in March. We will then see what we will do. I would not rule out further rate hikes after March. The battle against inflation is not over yet.’

27 December 2022

‘…we will decide meeting by meeting and on the basis of incoming data, given the current high uncertainty. As we announced this month, there will be further, necessary, rate hikes until inflation is on a path back to close to our 2% target.’

22 December 2022

‘First, increases of 50 basis points may become the new norm in the near term. Second, we should expect to raise interest rates at this pace for a period of time. And third, our interest rates will then enter into restrictive territory.’


Fabio Panetta (ECB)
24 January 2023

‘Monetary policy operates with lags, which means that the effects of the fastest tightening in the ECB’s history have not even started to be fully felt. We need to take those lags into account to avoid having to reverse course, which would be costly given the lower flexibility of the euro area economy compared to economies like the US. We need to keep our policy dependent on incoming information, providing markets with the necessary conditional guidance on the basis of our reaction function. We should do all that is necessary to bring inflation down to 2% without undue delay, at the minimum cost to the economy.’ ‘It was reasonable to increase rates in December and signal a similar step in February. But beyond February any unconditional guidance – that is, guidance unrelated to the economic outlook – would depart from our data-driven approach. Our December decisions were based on the projections available at that time. In March we will have new ones and should reassess the situation.’

‘…recent developments suggest that we can fend off the risks of second-round effects and bring down inflation by continuing to adjust our policy rates in a well-calibrated, non-mechanical way.’

‘Monetary policy operates with lags, which means that the effects of the fastest tightening in the ECB’s history have not even started to be fully felt. We need to take those lags into account to avoid having to reverse course, which would be costly given the lower flexibility of the euro area economy compared to economies like the US. We need to keep our policy dependent on incoming information, providing markets with the necessary conditional guidance on the basis of our reaction function. We should do all that is necessary to bring inflation down to 2% without undue delay, at the minimum cost to the economy.’

‘…a detailed, public discussion of actual policy measures – a discussion of basis points – would be inappropriate. That discussion should take place within the Governing Council of the ECB.’


Joachim Nagel (Bundesbank)
08 February 2023

‘…we already announced an interest rate increase of another 50bp for March. This is a strong commitment to a consistent monetary policy. However, as things currently stand, I do not see our job as being done yet with the interest rate move in March. I believe that we must also raise rates even further in order to create the necessary drag to bring inflation back down to 2% in a timely and sustainable manner. If we let up too early, there is a great danger that inflation will become entrenched. In March, we will know more about where exactly to go from here. Then we will have new data and the new ECB staff projections.’

‘From my current perspective, further significant interest rate increases will be needed. However, I think our step-by-step approach is the right one – for there are many unknowns.’

‘I would strongly recommend interpreting the latest statement as what it is: a robust announcement that goes beyond the March meeting. We are still far from having achieved price stability; our job is not done yet.’

25 January 2023

‘…nor do I see any reason to change anything about the course outlined by ECB President Christine Lagarde. After all, we are still a long way from the targeted 2% inflation.’

‘This [inflation] outlook is another reason why our announcement at the December Governing Council meeting remains correct: interest rates have yet to rise.’

‘For February and March we have announced that we will raise interest rates sharply again. Then we will look at where the inflation rate is in the spring and what the forecast of our experts will look like then. I wouldn't be surprised if we have to keep raising interest rates even after the two steps that have been announced.’

24 January 2023

‘We need to rein in inflation. Our work is not done yet.’

2 January 2023

‘…our job is not done yet. We need to take further action.’

‘Acting too hesitantly now for fear of choking off economic activity would be the wrong course of action.’

20 December 2022

‘[The December 15 decision] was a robust interest rate step. And it wasn’t the last. As things stand today, further robust steps need to follow.’

16 December 2022

‘With regard to the euro area as a whole, we must not let up our monetary policy efforts towards bringing inflation back down to our target of 2%.’


François Villeroy de Galhau (Banque de France)
23 January 2023

‘We have started to raise interest rates, we will continue to do so, perhaps at a slightly slower pace than in recent months, but we will do so to the level necessary to keep inflation under control.’

17 January 2023

‘I would say that the good resistance of the economy today gives us the means to raise interest rates in a pragmatic and reasonable way … we raised them very rapidly during the second half of 2022, because it was necessary to get out of this very accommodating phase … today we will raise them without a doubt in a more pragmatic way.’

13 January 2023

‘We need to raise rates. Today, central bank rates are at 2%, which is considered to be about the equilibrium rate that does not stimulate inflation and does not slow it down. We probably have to go a bit further in the coming months.’

11 January 2023

‘…we have reached the “normalisation zone”, in which monetary policy neither stimulates nor restrains inflation. In 2023, further rate hikes will most likely be needed in the coming months, at a pragmatic pace, to bring inflation back to around 2% within the two-year timeframe for monetary policy action.’

5 January 2023

‘…after raising interest rates to close to the “neutral interest rate” of 2% in December, we are now embarking on the second phase towards monetary stabilisation: ideally, it would be good to reach the right “terminal rate” by next summer, but it is still too early to say what that level will be. We need to remain pragmatic and to be guided by observed data, including on core inflation, without getting fixated on overly mechanical rate hikes. We will then be prepared to remain at this terminal rate for as long as necessary: the sprint to raise interest rates in 2022 is now becoming more of a long-distance race, and the duration will count at least as much as the level.’

16 December 2022

‘I believe that we should not already speculate on the number of increases of 50bp that there will be... There will probably be several, but we will remain guided by the real data: pragmatism!’


Ignazio Visco (Banca d’Italia)
11 February 2023

‘There is no question that the restriction of the euro area monetary stance must continue to ensure that a temporary increase in inflation caused by a supply shock does not become a more persistent phenomenon sustained by demand factors. … Following the ECB Governing Council’s latest decision, the pace of any further rate hike will then continue to be decided on the basis of incoming data and their impact on the inflation outlook. It will also remain essential to continue balancing the risk of a too gradual recalibration, which could cause inflation to become entrenched in expectations and in wage‑setting processes, with that of an excessive tightening, which would result in significant repercussions for economic activity, financial stability and, ultimately, medium-term price developments. In line with our symmetrical price stability objective, equal weight should be given to both risks. In particular, I am concerned about statements that seem to give a (much) higher weight to the risk of doing too little.’

‘I have argued that the extreme uncertainty we are living through today must inevitably imply, for the time being, a continuing tightening of monetary policy to avoid the possibility of relevant second-round effects reverberating across the euro area. However, this same uncertainty also suggests we move gradually and prudently, with official rates continuing to rise in a progressive but measured way, on the basis of the incoming data and their use in the assessment of the inflation outlook. I also believe that we should be very careful in providing a quantitative evaluation of the effects of preferring one or the other of the two opposite risks of doing too much or too little. It seems to me that there is no reason a priori to prefer erring on the one side or the other.’

23 January 2023

‘The Council also announced [in December] that [interest rates] will still have to rise to facilitate the timely return of inflation to the objective of price stability and that future decisions on rates will continue to be taken on the basis of the evolution of inflation and growth prospects.’

‘…monetary policy action can only continue in the direction taken. However, normalisation needs to proceed with the necessary gradualness, bearing in mind that, as I have observed, medium- to long-term inflation expectations are anchored and there are no signs of spirals between prices and wages...’

‘…further rate hikes are in the offing, but careful and conscious assessments of the intensity and timing of their transmission to all euro area economies will continue to be necessary, taking into account the evolution, in both directions, of the factors underlying the inflation dynamics…’

‘Even if the direction of travel can therefore only be the one taken - taking into account the initial conditions and regardless of sterile discussions on the level, natural or neutral, of official rates - the decisions on the pace and overall extent of the normalisation of monetary policy will have to continue to balance two risks. … I am inclined to assign similar weight to both risks; that is, I do not see why a possible error of assessment in one direction or the other should be privileged. In other words, I am not convinced that today it is better to risk restricting too much rather than too little.’

‘‘We are in a field of uncertainty where it is said that we have to make decisions on the basis of the data that become available meeting by meeting. And in some ways, this contradicts a bit. Then some statements that are made [by other Governing Council members], where they say, for the next two meetings [they want to hike by] at least 50bp. I am convinced that we need to improve in terms of communication. This is obvious. But in fact, as you will have seen, the decisions are still taken meeting by meeting so we will see if [rates] will go up by as much as some say they will or not. 50bp then 50bp puts rates at 3% in the short term […] We are not talking about extraordinary movements, what worries me is that we give messages that are too hard and where we basically scare rather than accompany.’


Pablo Hernández de Cos (Banco de España)
22 January 2023

‘…now we have to stay the course.’

‘Interest rates will rise to levels that allow us to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target in the medium term. What is this level? The current uncertainty is so high that it is not really possible to give precise guidance. But, with the information we have at this time, in order to achieve that objective, we believe that it will be necessary to continue raising interest rates significantly in the coming meetings and that, once reached, we will have to maintain that 'terminal' level for a while. The most important message is that we have not reached the end yet.’

16 January 2023

‘The Governing Council has indicated that it will be necessary to continue raising interest rates significantly in the coming meetings, at a sustained pace, until reaching levels that allow us to ensure that inflation will return to the target.’

‘In any case, I would like to re-emphasise the importance of taking into account the extraordinary uncertainty that we are experiencing. All of this leads us to continue emphasizing that our future interest rate decisions will continue to be data-driven and will follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.’

11 January 2023

‘Looking to the future, the Governing Council expects to continue increasing interest rates significantly in the coming meetings, at a sustained pace, until reaching sufficiently restrictive levels to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% target in the medium term.’

‘In any case, it is crucial to continue stressing the importance of taking into account the extraordinary uncertainty that we are experiencing, which affects both the evolution of geopolitical factors, as well as the economic environment and the evolution of the different supply and demand factors that are conditioning it, as well as their persistence, and even the impact of our measures on the economy in this context. All of this leads us to emphasise, as we have been doing in recent months, that our future interest rate decisions will continue to be data driven and will follow an approach where decisions are taken at each meeting.’


Klaas Knot (De Nederlandsche Bank)
08 February 2023

‘…the direction of travel therefore remains up. The Governing Council will stay the course in raising rates at a steady pace and in keeping them at levels that are sufficiently restrictive for a timely return to our 2% medium-term target. This reduces inflation by dampening demand and guarding against the risk of an upward shift in expectations. Our decisions will continue to be data-dependent and follow a meeting-by-meeting approach.’

‘The Governing Council is convinced that, under a wide range of scenarios, rates need to go up further to restore price stability. That is why it is possible for us to communicate some assessment of the policy rate path that lies ahead of us; specifically the intention to hike by another 50bp in March.’

‘…major and/or abrupt changes to the inflation outlook might always lead to a different policy decision at any upcoming meeting. The guidance that we extend is conditional and reflects an assessment based on contemporaneous information. It is a conditional baseline. By extension, the rate path beyond March is more uncertain. At this point, as we still have quite some ground to cover, I consider it highly unlikely that the March hike will be our endpoint. And if underlying inflation pressures do not materially abate, maintaining the current pace of hikes into May could well remain warranted. At the same time, the farther policy rates are edging into restrictive territory and the stronger the cumulative impact of our tightening will be felt, the more important it becomes to fine-tune our actions. Once we see a clear and decisive turn in underlying inflation dynamics, I therefore expect us to move to smaller steps. But absent such a turn, the ECB will continue to stay the course on its steady pace upwards, in pursuit of price stability for all euro area citizens.’

21 January 2023

‘The policy conclusion is that what our President Lagarde said in December is even more valid today. We will still have to raise interest rates significantly and bring them into a sufficiently restrictive territory to ensure a timely return of inflation toward our target.’

‘I entirely agree [that the ECB will hike by 50bp in February]. And not only in February. I think our President has been very clear. We made a step down in December from 75 to 50bp. That will be the pace for a multiple number of meetings. So that means at least the two in February and March.’

‘I do think that we will continue to be in tightening mode until the summer. But at some point, of course, the risks surrounding the inflation outlook will become more balanced. So at this moment, the risk that we have to manage is the risk that we do too little, not too much. But in the course of the year, as we will have covered more ground, the risks will become more balanced as well. … Then we must become more nuanced in our weighing of the risks of doing too little versus the risks of doing too much. That would also be a time in which we could make a further step down from 50 to 25bp, for instance. But we are still far away from that. I want to re-emphasize that this is not in sight for the upcoming meetings.’

19 January 2023

‘The phase of 50bp moves ‘will not stop after a single 50bp hike - that's for sure.' Lagarde 'has used the plural "s" in her words and I am using the plural "s" here.’

‘…at least until mid-year, we will be in tightening mode.’

26 December 2022

With five policy meetings until next July, the ECB would achieve ‘quite a decent pace of tightening’ via 50bp hikes in the months ahead before hitting the terminal rate by summer.


Pierre Wunsch (Belgian National Bank)
03 February 2023

‘I don't think we're going to move from 50bp [in March] to zero. It might be another 50bp or we might be moving to 25. I will certainly not exclude another 50bp, but that's going to be dependent on the data.’


Mārtiņš Kazāks (Latvijas Banka)
09 February 2023

‘Of course, we as decision makers should be open to discussing alternatives. But given the inflation and economic dynamics so far, the fact that we are only at 2.5% and that the pro-cyclicality and latent nature of r* make it very difficult to be sure that we are already in restrictive territory, getting to 3% in March is a good choice that will be effectively transmitted and, in my view, will take us into restrictive territory. But it is by no means the end of the cycle. I see no reason to stop or pause at 3%. Rates will need to go up at further meetings. How far exactly will depend on the data.’

13 January 2023

Rates should rise ‘well into restrictive territory.’

3 January 2023

‘In the next two meetings I think we can still do quite large steps. Of course the steps may become smaller as necessary as we find the level appropriate to bring the inflation down to 2%.’

‘Currently I would see that at the February and March meetings we will have significant rate increases.’


Olli Rehn (Bank of Finland)
03 February 2023

‘We also told you yesterday that we are going to raise interest rates by half a % unit at our March meeting. At the same time, we evaluate the future career of the key interest rate in the light of the latest information, i.e. our March forecast.’

16 January 2023

‘Policy rates will still have to rise significantly to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target. Thus, we will stay the course. Ceteris paribus, this means significant rate hikes in the following meetings – on a meeting-by-meeting basis depending on the incoming data and changes in the outlook. … But the near term is shrouded in uncertainty, and we need to keep an open mind to adjust our policies if needed.’


Madis Müller (Eesti Pank)
03 February 2022

‘Based on current knowledge, it is also clear that there will probably be an equally large interest rate increase in March. This is necessary in order to break the backbone of the too fast price increase and overcome the naturally more persistent pressures that are still raising the price level.’

16 December 2022

‘We [hiked yesterday] with the understanding that we will have to raise interest rates further in the future and probably higher than the financial markets have expected so far.’


Boštjan Vasle (Banka Slovenije)
03 February 2023

‘Given the persistence of inflationary pressures, we expect to raise rates again by 50bp at the next Governing Council meeting in March. Interest rates at restrictive levels will eventually reduce inflation by dampening demand and reducing the risks of strengthening inflation expectations. However, we will continue to adjust further monetary policy decisions to the circumstances and expectations at the time.’

25 January 2023

‘…the intent to make a further rise of 50bp in the key interest rates at the next two meetings is an appropriate response to the current inflation trends and expectations.’

16 December 2022

‘…our expectation is that interest rates will have to rise further before hitting a level that is sufficiently restrictive to ensure that inflation returns as quickly as possible to its 2% target over the medium term.’


Yannis Stournaras (Bank of Greece)
22 January 2023

‘It is clear that further increases will follow in the future. The destination for us is clear. We should reach the interest rate that will ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% target in the medium term. But given the high uncertainty, the ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic disturbances, and the volatility in markets, it is very difficult to accurately predict the level at which interest rates need to be set. Interest rate increases are determined based on the evolution of the outlook for inflation and the economy from meeting to meeting. In my opinion, the adjustment of interest rates needs to be more gradual, taking into account the slowdown in economic growth in the euro area, and with a view to the smooth transmission of monetary policy to each euro area country.’

12 January 2023

‘The main monetary policy instruments remain the European Central Bank's intervention rates, which are expected to rise further until the recent positive signs of easing inflationary pressures translate into certainty of approaching the 2% target in the medium term.’

30 December 2022

‘The Governing Council of the ECB has stressed that interest rates will still need to rise significantly at a sustained pace in order to be set at levels that are sufficiently restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to the medium-term target of 2%.’

25 December 2022

‘Although the central banks' main objective is clear, a policy dilemma arises relating to the extent to which interest rates should be increased and thus the negative consequences for economic growth that monetary authorities will be able to accept in order to stabilise inflation over the medium term.’

22 December 2022

‘The key interest rate of the European Central Bank has risen and we expect it to rise further. …  we will not stop at the 2% that is now. Possibly we will go towards 3%. … The DFR … may go to 3% by March.’

‘There is a danger here that if we raise interest rates to the same extent that America is raising them, we will hit the real economy too hard and create too much unemployment.’


Peter Kažimír (National Bank of Slovakia)
03 February 2023

‘In March, we intend to continue the established rhythm and raise rates again by 50bp. March will also be the month when we will have updated forecasts on the expected development of the economy and inflation for this and the next two years. It will be a moment for me to start talking about what to do next. Assuming that the March and subsequently June estimates show a drop in inflation towards the target, we can begin to cautiously say that we are managing to tame the inflationary beast. I think the March increase will not be the last. We will decide how many more will be needed afterwards. While we continue to raise rates, the financial markets have already started speculating about when we will start cutting rates. However, we are not at the top yet, and I think we won't be there in March either. At the same time, I would like to repeat that we will remain at that peak. We will stay there until we are sure that we can start the descent with a clear conscience. In translation, we can start reducing rates.’

23 January 2023

‘…there is no reason to slow the pace of rate hikes. … I believe we need to "deliver" two more 50s.

‘We're halfway there. If it were up to me, I would go into the summer holidays with the tightening cycle completed. But today, please don't ask me at what "altitude" we will be camping. In other words, how high are we going to go with rates and how long will it take to get there to tame inflation as needed. What the summer will be like is therefore a question for meteorologists today.’

19 December 2022

‘The direction is given and there is general agreement that this direction is necessary to anchor future inflation expectations. The current view of the future development of inflation, which we currently do not see at the target even in 2025, tells us to continue very vigorously, and I fully agree with that. I even think that in order to tame inflation, it will be necessary not only to move into the restrictive zone, but to stay there much longer. How high we will go with the rates is impossible to say today. Time and inflation will tell.’

‘The determination to continue vigorously will have to be maintained for at least the entire next half-year.’


Mário Centeno (Banco de Portugal)
13 February 2023

‘We declared that intention in March to hike 50bp. We will have a new forecast. It's going to be very important for the continuation of monetary policy by the ECB. We need to be open minded with data, because we stated that we will decide meeting by meeting and being data-dependent. We have inflation going down, actually faster than we expected in December when we produced the previous forecast. It will continue to go down as long as we don't have further shocks in our economies. So, this is good.’

‘After that [March], we will need to see the data. We need to be open to all possibilities, I would say, because that's what is most important for us, is that inflation keeps going down. We have good signs of that recently, the inflation surprised us in the downside for the first time in many, many years. That's great for … Europe. We need to continue that way. And hopefully we can be more predictable, as long as these trajectory of inflation is set.’

‘We really need to see inflation converging to 2% in the medium term, and the medium term is ‘24-‘25. If we are close enough to that target in our forecast, we can certainly pause this process of hiking. But let me be quite precise. What is important to everyone when they look at the monetary policy of the ECB is that, our interest rate needs to converge at some point to what we call the natural rate, and we will do it, because that's the nominal anchor that we need in monetary policy. And I think we have it in sight.’

‘My expectation is that March will be very important to define exactly that moment [the terminal rate], because the new forecast is going to tell us exactly where we are in this process and we for sure are much closer to that terminal rate than before. We are approaching it. And I think March will be a great moment for us to be very clear about it.’

17 January 2023

‘We are in a comfortable [normalization] process [that is] really needed’.

22 December 2022

‘I support all the rate increases that have been made by the ECB so far. … my position is … fully aligned with the decision that was made’ on December 15.

‘Further hikes are an inevitability, and the predictability of monetary policy, which is highly desirable, will become more obvious to everyone once inflation starts to come down.’


Gabriel Makhlouf (Central Bank of Ireland)
14 February 2023

‘I see the ECB as putting up interest rates after the March meeting … Even though inflation is coming down, it’s still way above our target.’

‘I could see it [the terminal rate] being higher than 3.5%. I’m open to acting forcefully to get inflation down to our target.’

25 January 2023

‘We need to continue to increase rates at our meeting next week – by taking a similar step to our December decisions – and also at our March meeting, although our future policy decisions need to continue to be data-dependent given the prevailing uncertainty.’


Gediminas Šimkus (Bank of Lithuania)
03 February 2023

‘March is an intention but not a commitment. If we are talking about May, we can certainly expect it.’

‘There are some corrections of inflation expectations to the positive side. I think this shows very clearly that we are on the right track. And it is these forecasts that will help us make a decision in March.’

24 January 2023

‘There’s a strong case for staying on the course that’s been set for the coming meetings of 50bp increases. In my opinion, these 50bp increases must be taken unequivocally.’

‘It’s clear to me that the current economic environment requires us to deliver increases of 50bp in the coming meetings. When we move to the more distant periods of the summer or next autumn, we need to wait and see.’


Robert Holzmann (Austrian National Bank)
06 February 2023

‘…current inflation rates in the euro area remain too high. Most importantly, people clearly continue to feel the impact of inflation on their daily lives. Hence, today, the risk of overtightening seems dwarfed by the risk of doing too little. So, I think I may consider myself at least partly “Lámfalussyian” when reaffirming the following: Our monetary policy must continue to show its teeth until we see a credible convergence to our inflation target – a convergence that is also felt by the wider public.’

03 February 2023

‘Interest rates have risen, but are still at a comparatively moderate level. We are now at 2.5% with a headline inflation rate in Austria of over 10% and over 8.5% in Europe, so we are still some time away from where we can stop raising rates.’

11 January 2023

‘Hopefully with this we are coming now to the neutral rate’, but rates must nonetheless rise ‘significantly further’ so as to become sufficiently restrictive to restore price stability.

‘We are probably around neutral territory’, but ‘we don’t know yet’ where the terminal rate lies.

16 December 2022

‘Yes, it is the firm intention to advance well into the area of restrictive policy if it is necessary. That means that you can set the terminal rate high.’


Boris Vujčić (Croatian National Bank)
10 February 2023

‘I think the message from the meeting was quite clear: We will raise rates by another 50bp in March, barring some unexpected data surprises. After that, we’ll be looking at the data that come in the following months and decide on the interest rate moves then. The decision is not really different from what we said in December.’

‘Given where we are today, I would agree that we are likely to see more rate action beyond March. But we're going to wait for the data to come in and then decide in May, June, July what we’re going to do.’

‘…from where we are now, given recent data and our projections, we are likely to see more rate action beyond March and I would leave the issue of the terminal rate for later.’

24 January 2023

‘Obviously we can expect interest rates to go up...we have not reached the end...So, we'll see more interest rate hikes.’

10 January 2023

‘We are in the rate-raising phase and that cycle did not finish with the last hike of 50bp but will continue. Until when will depend on what will be happening with inflation, and on the effect of previous hikes, which will be assessed from one monetary policy meeting to another.’