ECB: Consumers’ Perception of Past Inflation, Expectations of Future Inflation Post Rises in June

4 August 2022

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The European Central Bank’s consumer expectations survey, released Thursday for the first time, showed increases in June both in the perception of past inflation and in expectations of future inflation.

‘The median perceived inflation rate over the past 12 months rose to 7.2% from 6.6% in May, while the median expectation for inflation 12 months ahead only edged up to 5.0%’, the ECB said. ‘Inflation expectations three years ahead also increased noticeably to 2.8%, from 2.5% in May. Consumers’ uncertainty about inflation has stabilised since March after rising over the preceding months.’

The survey, based on some 14,000 responses from Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands, also showed expectations for nominal income growth 12 months ahead at an unchanged 0.9%.

Economic growth expectations 12 months ahead came in at -1.3%, while consumers anticipated a higher unemployment rate than previously of 11.5%.