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ECB Insight: December Hold Baked In as Council Prepares to Look Through Early-Horizon Undershooting

ECB Insight: December Hold Baked In as Council Prepares to Look Through Early-Horizon Undershooting

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Two days before the European Central Bank’s final monetary policy decision of the year, all meaningful signals point to a unanimous hold, a press conference focused on interpreting the updated projections and managing the risk that a stronger macro outlook is misread as a signal of impending monetary tightening, and a policy outlook that keeps rates at 2% well into 2026 absent a significant shock.

16 December 2025

Exclusives

Insights

ECB Insight: December Hold Baked In as Council Prepares to Look Through Early-Horizon Undershooting

ECB Insight: December Hold Baked In as Council Prepares to Look Through Early-Horizon Undershooting

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Two days before the European Central Bank’s final monetary policy decision of the year, all meaningful signals point to a unanimous hold, a press conference focused on interpreting the updated projections and managing the risk that a stronger macro outlook is misread as a signal of impending monetary tightening, and a policy outlook that keeps rates at 2% well into 2026 absent a significant shock.

16 December 2025
ECB Insight: Where Lane Defends Doctrine, Schnabel Applies It, and the Result Is Hawkish

ECB Insight: Where Lane Defends Doctrine, Schnabel Applies It, and the Result Is Hawkish

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s latest intervention does not mark a new “turn” so much as the clearest consolidation of a line she has been following for months: small, forecast-based undershoots of 2% can be tolerated, while the real dangers still run to the upside.

9 December 2025

ECB Tone Meter

Entire Governing Council

26 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Executive Board

6 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Evolution

Governing Council vs. Executive Board

As of 15 December 2025

ECB Tone Meter

Meeting Bias

ECB Governing Council Meeting