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ECB Insight: Where Lane Defends Doctrine, Schnabel Applies It, and the Result Is Hawkish

ECB Insight: Where Lane Defends Doctrine, Schnabel Applies It, and the Result Is Hawkish

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s latest intervention does not mark a new “turn” so much as the clearest consolidation of a line she has been following for months: small, forecast-based undershoots of 2% can be tolerated, while the real dangers still run to the upside.

9 December 2025

Exclusives

Exclusive: Austria Debt Head: Will Not Issue in Long End of Curve at Any Price in 2026

Exclusive: Austria Debt Head: Will Not Issue in Long End of Curve at Any Price in 2026

- Markus Stix, Austrian Treasury Managing Director: 2026 gross issuance seen €43–45bn vs. €45bn in 2025
- Stix: “We again aim for three euro syndications” in 2026
- Stix: Will be active in issuance in 1H26, but will keep “some powder dry for later”
- Stix: Open to opportunistic long-end issuance via taps of outstanding century bonds
- Stix: No plans to issue a new century bond in 2026
- Stix: New green bond via syndication in 2026 “one of many options”
- Stix: Would consider CHF market again to fund new green eligible expenditures
- Stix: No plans to add additional tenors to Bundesschatz program

4 December 2025

Insights

ECB Insight: Where Lane Defends Doctrine, Schnabel Applies It, and the Result Is Hawkish

ECB Insight: Where Lane Defends Doctrine, Schnabel Applies It, and the Result Is Hawkish

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel’s latest intervention does not mark a new “turn” so much as the clearest consolidation of a line she has been following for months: small, forecast-based undershoots of 2% can be tolerated, while the real dangers still run to the upside.

9 December 2025
ECB Insight: Institutional Discipline, Not Hawkishness, Defines Rehn’s Message

ECB Insight: Institutional Discipline, Not Hawkishness, Defines Rehn’s Message

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – What stood out in our interview published today with European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn was not a call for action, but the conspicuous lack of one — a shift in emphasis that, from a policymaker previously among the quickest to flag downside risks, might register as an uncharacteristically firm stance.

8 December 2025
ECB Insight: Lane Reasserts Symmetry – And Hands the Council Its Escape Clauses

ECB Insight: Lane Reasserts Symmetry – And Hands the Council Its Escape Clauses

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – Philip Lane’s Ljubljana speech on Wednesday reads like a belated attempt to pull ECB communication back toward its own strategy just as Governing Council members work to downplay the significance of what looks increasingly like another projected undershoot in 2028.

3 December 2025

ECB Tone Meter

Entire Governing Council

26 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Executive Board

6 Members
Very Dovish
Very Hawkish

Evolution

Governing Council vs. Executive Board

As of 9 December 2025

ECB Tone Meter

Meeting Bias

ECB Governing Council Meeting