By Marta Vilar – LONDON (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Boris Vujčić said on Tuesday that the latest energy futures curve was tracking somewhere between the ECB's milder and baseline scenarios, while stressing that uncertainty remained elevated.
Speaking at the Barclays CEPR Monetary Policy Forum 2026 in London, Vujčić said that “the latest futures curve lies somewhere between our milder and baseline scenario at the moment,” adding that the outlook remained highly uncertain.
He said the conflict in the Middle East had weighed heavily on economic activity, pointing to a decline in the composite PMI from an average of 51.3 in the first quarter to 48.5 in May. The index had since rebounded to 49.5, suggesting some easing of the drag from the crisis, he said.
Labor market indicators had also improved somewhat, with the employment PMI rising from 49.0 to 49.7, although it remained in mildly contractionary territory, he said.
Consumer confidence had fallen sharply as households reacted to higher energy prices, Vujčić said.
Referring to euro area GDP data for the first quarter of 2026, he said the figures had been “surprising” and described growth as “healthy.”
He said the ECB's June projections had revised growth lower, primarily because of weaker private consumption.
He pointed to evidence of indirect effects from the energy shock, citing elevated core and services inflation.
“If you look at wages, there is no sign of second-round effects in wages yet,” he said, adding that the ECB's recent wage projections had proved accurate.
Turning to inflation expectations, Vujčić said short-term expectations had risen, while medium- and long-term expectations remained well anchored.
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