By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Econostream’s ECB Tone Meter was broadly unchanged for the Governing Council while turning slightly more hawkish for the Executive Board as the quiet period ahead of the June meeting began.

The Governing Council index edged up to +2.24 from +2.22 a week earlier, while the Executive Board index rose to +2.05 from +1.95.

Policymakers this week reiterated their expectations for an interest rate hike at the Governing Council’s June 11 meeting, with some typically quieter members also beginning to signal support for action.

Biggest Movers of the Week: Elderson, Rehn and Wunsch

Although he rarely comments publicly on monetary policy, ECB Executive Board member Frank Elderson was this week’s biggest mover in the index. While several of his colleagues largely reiterated expectations for a move next week that they had already signaled previously — resulting in little change to their individual scores and therefore to the overall index — Elderson’s remarks were incorporated into the index for the first time in months.

Given his long silence on monetary policy, Elderson’s remarks had not contributed to the index recently and therefore had a more noticeable impact. While he stopped short of explicitly calling for a June hike, he strongly suggested that policy action may be warranted by saying that the likelihood of the ECB being able to look through the shock had become “increasingly low.”

One of the week’s most notable remarks came from Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn, who became the first Governing Council member to explicitly characterize the expected June hike as an insurance move, despite the reluctance of most of his colleagues to do so.

• ECB Insight: Rehn and the Insurance Hike Paradox

National Bank of Belgium Governor Pierre Wunsch also reinforced his support for a June hike, suggesting that even a peace deal between Iran and the US would probably not be enough to prevent the ECB from acting next week. In that scenario, he said, the debate “might be a bit less easy,” but “there is probably still a case for hiking, it’s just a bit less strong.”

Dominant Themes in This Week’s Communication: Doubts About a Second Hike

Several policymakers this week cast doubt on the automaticity of a second move following the widely expected June hike. Among them were some notably hawkish voices, including Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, who said it was “too early to say that it’s a certain number of hikes and then it’s done.”

Wunsch went further, indicating that he did not currently expect additional tightening after an initial move in June. He said that he did not “have very strong feelings” about the post-June evolution of monetary policy.

Luis de Guindos, who completed his term as ECB vice president on Sunday, struck a similar note on his final day in office, saying he “would not be so categorical” when asked whether a June hike should be assumed to be followed by another increase in rates.