By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – François Villeroy de Galhau’s early departure from the presidency of the Banque de France, though mainly a domestic story, is also an early test of how French President Emmanuel Macron wants to allocate national monetary policy talent ahead of the next round of European Central Bank Executive Board openings.

The ECB vice presidency is already taken, with Croatian National Bank Governor Boris Vujčić due to take office on June 1, 2026, leaving the end of Chief Economist Philip Lane’s term on May 31, 2027 as the next obvious focal point for French ambitions in Frankfurt. As previously argued here, we have long held that France is likely to end up with one of its nationals in that role.

In that context, we have suggested that Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, currently second deputy governor of the Banque de France, holds the strongest cards, but former OECD Deputy Secretary-General and Chief Economist Laurence Boone is also a very credible option. That said, Bénassy-Quéré’s current role gives her a very clean institutional profile for such a bid, while Boone now heads Santander CIB and Banking in France.

The race to succeed Villeroy is thus not simply a question of who looks strongest on a shortlist including Élysée secretary-general Emmanuel Moulin, Treasury chief Bertrand Dumont, Bénassy-Quéré, competition authority head Benoît Cœuré, and Boone.

Public momentum appears to favor Moulin. If chosen, he would be a political appointment in the broad sense of the term: not the candidate with the purest central-banking pedigree, but a trusted presidential operator who would keep the Banque de France in reliable hands while leaving more ECB-ready economists available for the 2027 Executive Board round. His ascendancy would permit certain conclusions about who may succeed Lane.

In that respect, Bénassy-Quéré remains central to the analysis. If Paris wants a French economist in Lane’s seat in 2027, there is an obvious logic to not “spending” her now on the domestic governorship. Boone, however, weakens any claim that Bénassy-Quéré is France’s only plausible French option for the chief economist seat, even if Bénassy-Quéré still looks like the tidier fit.

The gender question should not be forgotten. Once Vujčić replaces Luis de Guindos in June, the six-member ECB Executive Board will still include only two women, President Christine Lagarde (who, we suspect, may leave with Lane) and Isabel Schnabel.

That does not make a female French candidate automatic for Lane’s seat, but it does strengthen the case for seeing Bénassy-Quéré and Boone not just as strong economists, but as politically useful options in a broader 2027 package.

Among the names in circulation, Cœuré is the easiest to defend on the merits of the Banque de France job itself. He previously served on the ECB Executive Board and brings a degree of intellectual and institutional heft that no serious observer would dismiss. If Macron wanted the strongest immediately available central-banking candidate for the domestic job, Cœuré would be the clearest expression of that preference.

On the Frankfurt question, however, the distinction between Moulin and Cœuré is less consequential than it may first appear. Both would preserve France’s live options for the 2027 Board round. The same would broadly be true of Dumont. None of the three would use up Bénassy-Quéré or Boone, who would therefore remain the clearest French candidates for Lane’s seat.

Making Bénassy-Quéré Villeroy’s successor would not have the same overtly political nuance as a Moulin choice, nor would it amount to the same credibility-first domestic statement as a turn to Cœuré. It would instead suggest that Paris was willing to use one of its clearest future ECB options on the domestic prize now rather than later. The potential availability of Boone softens that conclusion but does not invalidate it.

More than that, a Bénassy-Quéré appointment would sharply narrow the Frankfurt question by leaving Boone as the clearest remaining French option for Lane’s seat. The reverse would also be true: a Boone appointment to the Banque de France would leave Bénassy-Quéré as the obvious French candidate for Frankfurt, much as we expected.

The Banque de France succession thus already says something larger about French strategy. Media momentum still points first to Moulin. But he is not the only option-preserving choice. Cœuré would preserve French room for maneuver in Frankfurt too, while making a stronger statement about the domestic job itself, and Dumont would broadly do the same.

Only a Banque de France appointment for Bénassy-Quéré or Boone would really narrow the Frankfurt question, because in that case the other would emerge as the clearest remaining French option for Lane’s seat.