ECB Tone Meter Weekly Update: Dovish Tilt Emerges Ahead of the Quiet Period

30 January 2026

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB’s tone in our ECB Tone Meter moved slightly dovish this week, both for the Governing Council overall and for the Executive Board, as the quiet period began on Thursday. The former settled at 0.00, effectively neutral, while the latter eased to +0.05, remaining marginally positive and therefore still slightly hawkish.

This compared with last week’s reading of +0.04 for the Governing Council and +0.12 for the Executive Board. Driving forces were less hawkish remarks from ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and Piero Cipollone’s return with marginally dovish comments.

Biggest movers of the Week: Schnabel and Cipollone

This week initially saw a sharp spike in hawkishness in both the Governing Council and Executive Board tones, as Cipollone’s dovish comments from early December dropped out of the index. This mechanically pushed both indices in a more hawkish direction, despite the absence of any meaningful new hawkish remarks.

On 28 January, Cipollone then delivered new comments on monetary policy. While still marginally dovish, they were far less so than his early-December remarks, when he had outlined a downside scenario that would have required the ECB to “act” if it materialized. This week he struck a more optimistic tone on growth, with his only note of caution relating to uncertainty and its potential effects on both growth and inflation.

These slightly dovish remarks prompted a modest dovish shift in both the Governing Council and Executive Board indices. However, this adjustment only partially unwound the earlier hawkish spike and fell well short of offsetting the hawkish shift caused by the expiry of his early-December comments.

Later on 28 January, Schnabel also spoke after having been silent for roughly a month. Her remarks likewise contributed to a further easing in the indices: while still hawkish, they were less so than her late-December comments, with her now indicating that rates are expected to remain at “current levels” for an “extended period.” This pushed both the Governing Council and Executive Board indices modestly lower.

Dominant Themes in this Week’s Communication: Euro Strength Not Enough to Trigger Near-Term Cut

A repeated focus in this week’s comments was the euro’s strength and what it could mean for ECB monetary policy. Austrian National Bank Governor Martin Kocher had already flagged the issue last week, saying he did not expect a “strong” appreciation of the euro against the dollar in 2026.

He returned to the topic this week, noting that if the euro were to continue appreciating “further and further,” it could eventually create “a certain necessity to react” on the policy front.

Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau went further, issuing a statement dedicated to the recent rise in the euro, saying the ECB would monitor the move and “its possible implications for lower inflation.”

Meanwhile, speaking to Econostream, Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Šimkus also acknowledged the euro’s recent strength but cautioned that calling for policy adjustments simply because the exchange rate is at $1.19 would be “an oversimplification.”