By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – This week the ECB Tone Meter moved in opposite directions for the Governing Council and the Executive Board, settling at +0.9 and +0.13 respectively, with both readings remaining in very marginally hawkish territory.

This compares with last week’s readings of +0.07 for the Governing Council and +0.14 for the Executive Board. Less dovishness on the part of some doves—who dominated the talking this week—led the overall Governing Council tone slightly deeper into hawkish territory, while Chief Economist Philip Lane’s return from over a month of silence was responsible for the Executive Board’s minimal dovish tilt.

Biggest Movers of the Week: Villeroy, Rehn and Lane

This week saw comments from only a handful of Governing Council members, many of whom stayed broadly in line with their previous tone. Among the exceptions were Banque de France Governor François Villeroy and Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn.

Villeroy sounded slightly less dovish than in late December, notably by adjusting his framing of inflation risks. Whereas in December he described risks as “particularly to the downside,” this week he characterized downside risks as merely “at least as high” as upside risks.

Rehn, meanwhile, struck a less downside-focused tone than in December. At that time, he highlighted “still downside risks,” pointing to modest growth despite the recovery, potential tariff-related headwinds to inflation, and the possibility that wage growth could slow faster than projected. This week, however, he limited his remarks to evidence of rerouting of Chinese goods, stopping short of reiterating the broader set of downside risks he had previously emphasized.

Chief Economist Philip Lane, silent for more than a month until today, struck a very slightly dovish tone on Friday, driven by his asymmetric characterization of inflation risks. He suggested that inflation rising above target would require a “significant acceleration” in the economy, whereas slipping below target would merely “involve a slowdown.”

While his remarks were not enough to offset the more hawkish tilt in the Governing Council – stemming from Villeroy, Rehn and others – they were the key driver behind the Executive Board’s dovish shift.

Dominant Themes in the Week’s Communication: Calendar-Based Assurances on Rate Hikes

A recurring theme in this week’s remarks was the suggestion that ECB interest rate hikes are unlikely in the near term—a form of calendar-based reassurance that sits uneasily with the ECB’s meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent framework.

Villeroy dismissed the prospect of rate hikes in 2026 as a “fanciful theory,” while adding some conditionality by noting that such an outcome would require an “unlikely shock.” On the same day, Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller said that rate hikes were a matter of “a few years ahead,” rather than months.

In a more conditional and less forward-guidance-like formulation, Lane said that “the current level of the interest rate delivers the baseline for the next several years.” The difference with Villeroy’s and Müller’s comments lies in the way he framed it: explicitly as a baseline projection subject to uncertainty, with a symmetric and conditional reaction function, as discussed in this Insight.