ECB Tone Meter Post-Holiday Update: Modest Hawkish Shift as One GC Member Repositions and Others Turn Firmer

9 January 2026

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The tone of the ECB’s Governing Council, as reflected in the ECB Tone Meter, has shifted modestly more hawkish since the 18 December 2025 monetary policy meeting.

The current reading stands at +0.07 for the Governing Council and +0.15 for the Executive Board, both within our classification of a broadly neutral tone with a slight hawkish bias. This compares with readings on 18 December of +0.01 for the Governing Council and +0.15 for the Executive Board, the latter unchanged.

The latest hawkish tilt appears to be driven primarily by a series of modest upgrades across several governors, whose individually small moves add up in aggregate, alongside a reassessment by two members who had previously struck a softer tone, then gone silent, and have since returned with less accommodative tone.

Biggest movers: Wunsch and a Cluster of Marginal Hawkish Shifts

Among those edging slightly further into hawkish territory are governors who have sounded more upbeat about economic growth, including Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn and Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller. Remarks from Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, who voiced concern that inflation in Germany may ease more slowly than expected, also contributed to the shift.

At the same time, governors from traditionally more dovish countries, such as Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras and Banco de Portugal Governor Álvaro Santos Pereira, expressed comfort with current interest rate levels, while stressing that a change in conditions would be required for any adjustment.

The most notable individual mover was Pierre Wunsch. After roughly two months of silence following October 17 comments, the National Bank of Belgium governor returned on December 19 to say he had “dropped my slight dovish bias,” but declined to indicate the likely direction of the next policy move, leaving his stance essentially neutral.

While Wunsch stopped short of suggesting that the next move would be a rate hike, his comments on December 29 showed a greater openness to that outcome, which he described as a “possibility.” This represented a very modest hawkish shift relative to his earlier refusal to speculate.

Dominant Theme in this Period’s Communication: Openness on the Direction of the Next Move

A recurring theme in policymakers’ remarks during this period was that, should the ECB eventually adjust policy again, officials remain open to the next move going in either direction. This stance was reflected not only in comments by Wunsch, but also by Banco de España Governor José Luis Escrivá and Austrian National Bank Governor Martin Kocher.

Other governors conveyed the same idea using different language, notably by referring to “full optionality” or similar formulations. This was the case for National Bank of Slovakia Governor Peter Kažimír, Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau, Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks and Stournaras.

Several Governing Council members also stressed that interest rates would only be adjusted in the event of a material change in underlying conditions. This view was expressed by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, Stournaras and Pereira.

Bulgarian National Bank Governor Dimitar Radev, who made his first monetary policy comments as a member of the ECB Governing Council on January 9, also suggested there would be no significant changes in the current rate path.