ECB’s Pereira: Portuguese Inflation Expected to Converge to 2% Within Projection Horizon

6 January 2026

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Álvaro Santos Pereira said on Tuesday that the Portuguese economy had shown resilience and that inflation in the country was expected to converge towards 2% within the projection horizon.

In an opinion piece in Portuguese newspaper Eco, Pereira, who heads the Banco de Portugal, said that despite uncertainty, the European economy had grown slightly more than expected in 2025.

The Portuguese economy had also shown resilience and kept converging with the euro area, he said, adding that this trend would continue with an expected Portuguese growth rate of 2.3% and 1.7% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

“In turn, inflation is expected to converge to 2% within the projection horizon, in line with the evolution towards the euro area,” he said.

Strong private consumption and investment, underpinned by a robust labor market, fiscal measures, and higher EU funds, were driving growth, he said, adding that investment was set to slow markedly in 2027 as the Recovery and Resilience Facility expires.

Slower migration flows were likely to weigh on employment, disposable income, and consumption, he said.

“More worrying is the evolution of our exports, which slowed in 2025, with declines in market share, mainly in the European Union,” he said. “This trend should be closely monitored in the coming months.”