ECB Insight: Bulgaria’s Entry and Key Term Endings Make 2026 a Turnover Year for the Governing Council

29 December 2025

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – As the European Central Bank’s Governing Council wonders how long its current “good place” will last and to what policy move it will ultimately give way, it also faces another year of above-average turnover.

Exactly how many new Council members will be helping to shape euro area monetary policy decisions one year from now cannot be said today. The absolute minimum should be four: Bulgaria’s accession adds a new governor to the table, Malta and Estonia already look forward to new incoming governors, and the ECB vice presidency must be filled anew.

In practice it is more likely to be five (we doubt Slovenia will go yet another year without a central bank head), perhaps six (de Guindos’ successor may be a sitting NCB governor who would then need a successor). At the most—barring the very unexpected—up to nine changes are possible in 2026, though this scenario is less likely.

We detail here the coming changes to the extent possible and consider the possible implications for monetary policy. First, there are two NCBs whose leadership has already been an open question for some time.

Two unresolved national cases

Banka Slovenije: The last day in office of the Slovenian central bank’s previous governor, Boštjan Vasle, was 8 January 2025. His government’s year-long inability to find a replacement may be about to come to an end, though we take nothing for granted.

The latest round, involving almost a dozen candidates, yielded three front-runners: current Banka Slovenije vice governors Marko Pahor and Primož Dolenc (the latter is acting governor, in which capacity he attends ECB Governing Council meetings, at which he has no vote), as well as Matej Falatov, member of the supervisory board of Slovenia’s second-largest private bank, NKBM.

Falatov seems to have emerged from the process to date with the best cards, followed closely by Dolenc. However, Falatov is subject to a Banka Slovenije investigation concerning alleged irregularities at NKBM and reportedly failed to disclose this in the context of his interest in heading the central bank. This could hamper his candidacy.

Moreover, domestic media report that despite the passage of the time limit for the expression of interest in the position, another prospective candidate, Slovenian Ministry of Finance State Secretary Katja Božič, who claims to have missed the deadline due to post office issues, may be considered. It is not clear how realistic her prospects are.

In any case, the last regular session of the National Assembly of the Republic of Slovenia will be on 26 January, making this the latest date at which it seems that Banka Slovenije will – at long last – get a new governor. The victor will presumably participate in ECB Governing Council meetings starting on 5 February.

National Bank of Slovakia: Convicted of bribery earlier this year after a lengthy legal process that raised broader concerns beyond the original charges, Governor Peter Kažimír resisted numerous calls for his resignation before and even after his term ended last 1 June.

Provided he manages to go on avoiding a threatened prison term, he evidently intends to continue taking advantage of a Slovakian law that says that if the country’s governing coalition partners cannot come to agreement about a successor — which they have so far been unable to — then he is legally permitted to remain in office until the impasse is resolved.

2026 calendar of Governing Council changes

1 January 2026 - Central Bank of Malta governor Edward Scicluna’s term of office ends on Wednesday, making the 18 December Governing Council meeting, at which he was presented with the farewell gift of a book and various kind words, his last.

He will be succeeded by Deputy Governor Alexander Demarco, who for one year up until last 31 July occupied the role of acting governor. Demarco has spent decades at the institution and is what we would call a central banker’s central banker, at ease discussing any aspect of monetary policy.

1 January 2026 - Dimitar Radev, governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, can shed his observer status and take full part in ECB Governing Council meetings in the wake of Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro from Thursday.

6 April 2026 - Gediminas Šimkus, chairman of the board of the Bank of Lithuania, appears well positioned to be granted a second five-year term at the head of the Lithuanian central bank, but an official decision has yet to be made.

31 May 2026 - Luis de Guindos, vice president of the ECB, will be leaving in any case, so that the question is who his successor will be. As we’ve discussed previously, there are six current candidates (of varying degrees of officialness) in the race.

6 June 2026 - Madis Müller, governor of Eesti Pank, is equally obliged to bid farewell, given the one-term limit at the Estonian central bank. His successor will be Deputy Governor Ülo Kaasik.

26 June 2026 - Yannis Stournaras, governor of the Bank of Greece, is nearing the end of his second six-year term, but there are indications that a third mandate is likely.

31 August 2026 - Gabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland. We understand that an extension of his mandate is at least plausible.

Policy implications

What does all this mean for monetary policy? First, we summarize the base-case changes:

Dimitar Radev (entirely new seat on the Governing Council)
Alexander Demarco (replacing Edward Scicluna)
Unknown (replacing Boštjan Vasle following year-long vacancy)
Unknown (replacing Luis de Guindos)
Unknown (replacing de Guindos’ successor, if this is an NCB governor)
Ülo Kaasik (replacing Madis Müller)

That is, we are operating on the assumption that Peter Kažimír, whose appeal is ongoing, will cling to his job for the foreseeable future, and that Gediminas Šimkus, Yannis Stournaras and Gabriel Makhlouf will all be reappointed.

The likely impact of each change we would assess as follows:

Bulgaria: an Econostream interview suggests that Radev could be a relatively hawkish addition to the Council. True, according to World Bank data, Bulgaria’s GDP last year was just under 0.7% of the euro area’s. Still, Radev has the same one vote as every other Council member (subject, of course, to the rotation system).
Malta: although Demarco is rather dovish, as seen in our interview with him earlier this year, his predecessor, Scicluna, has also been at least slightly dovish. This mutes the net impact of the change.
Slovenia: It remains to be seen who will succeed Vasle, but Slovenian central bank governors have tended to be on the hawkish side – this was certainly the case with Vasle. With the country’s voting rights having been suspended now for a year, his successor will in that sense be an entirely new addition to the Council.
Estonia: We are not sure where to situate Kaasik, but suspect that in terms of his monetary policy philosophy, he will land not too far from his predecessor, Müller, attenuating the net impact – if any – of the turnover of the Estonian seat on the Governing Council.
ECB vice presidency: We have previously speculated that this position will go to Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn. We are not writing off the other candidates yet, in particular former Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno. Both Rehn and Centeno have been at the dovish extreme of the spectrum, though as recently as a couple of years ago, Rehn was far less dovish. With the ECB vice president more clearly representing the institution than any NCB governor, we would expect either of the two – but especially Rehn – to gravitate somewhat toward the center if appointed. On balance, therefore, with de Guindos just on the dovish side of center, Rehn – our base case – could more or less represent continuity, while Centeno would add moderate dovishness. It is worth noting here however that if Rehn moves to the vice presidency, then he would have a vote at every meeting, Executive Board members not being subject to the rotation system.
Bank of Finland: The selection of Rehn would have a further consequence for the Governing Council, as his seat as NCB governor would then be up for grabs. We would expect it to go to Bank of Finland Board member Tuomas Välimäki. Välimäki was already acting Council member for four months while Rehn was a candidate in the 2024 Finnish presidential election. His deep understanding of monetary policy would make him a standout permanent member, but philosophically, we don’t think it implies a change versus Rehn.

Relative to the situation today, the above translates as follows:

two new likely hawkish additions (Bulgaria’s Radev and whoever becomes Banka Slovenije governor).
one slightly dovish addition (Malta’s Demarco).
a slight change in uncertain direction (Estonia’s Kaasik).
a possible mitigation of Rehn’s dovishness, suggesting approximate continuity vis-à-vis de Guindos (assuming Rehn is appointed ECB VP; if Centeno gets it, then the Executive Board becomes slightly more dovish overall and there is no other associated change).
continuity (if Bank of Finland’s Välimäki replaces Rehn).

Summing up, at this point we have to underscore that this is no exact science. Policymakers can confound expectations, as arguably seen this year in Spain and Portugal. We would therefore be reluctant to assert a palpable net effect on ECB monetary policy as a result of 2026 turnover on the Governing Council. We can however say that if there is one, it is likely to point in a hawkish direction.

For the sake of completeness, in the following we list ECB Governing Council members’ scheduled term endings beyond 2026, by the date of their respective end of term.

Term endings beyond 2026

2027

31 May 2027 - Philip Lane, ECB Executive Board member

31 October 2027 - Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB

31 October 2027 – François Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the Banque de France

31 December 2027 - Isabel Schnabel, ECB Executive Board member

2028

14 December 2028 - Frank Elderson, ECB Executive Board member

2029

21 January 2029 - Pierre Wunsch, governor of the National Bank of Belgium

10 April 2029 - Christodoulos Patsalides, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus

17 July 2029 – Dimitar Radev, governor of the Bulgarian National Bank

31 October 2029 - Fabio Panetta, governor of the Banca d’Italia

31 December 2029 - Joachim Nagel, president of German Bundesbank

2030

5 February 2030 - Mārtiņš Kazāks, governor of Latvijas Banka

12 July 2030 - Boris Vujčić, governor of the Croatian National Bank

23 September 2030 – José Luis Escrivá, governor of Banco de España

5 October 2030 – Álvaro Santos Pereira, governor of Banco de Portugal

31 December 2030 – Gaston Reinesch, governor of the Central Bank of Luxembourg

31 December 2030 – Alexander Demarco, governor of the Central Bank of Malta (from 1 January 2026)

2031

31 August 2031 - Martin Kocher, governor of Austrian National Bank

31 October 2031 – Piero Cipollone, ECB Executive Board member

2032

11 July 2032 – Olli Rehn, governor of Bank of Finland

30 June 2032 – Olaf Sleijpen, governor of De Nederlandsche Bank

2033

6 June 2033 – Ülo Kaasik, governor of Eesti Pank (from 7 June 2026)