Race to Succeed de Guindos Takes on Further Shape as Nominations Near Deadline

22 December 2025

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – With Friday’s confirmation of Estonia’s intention to back European Central Bank Governing Council member Madis Müller, there are now six named candidates to succeed ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos when his terms ends on May 31, 2026.

Müller, head of Eesti Pank, is the candidate to whom we referred a week ago without identifying him. His entry means that all three Baltic states are in the running, given that Latvijas Banka governor Mārtiņš Kazāks is officially in the running and Lithuania intends to put forward three-time finance minister Rimantas Šadžius, as we reported last week.

The most salient candidacy is probably that of well-credentialed Bank of Finland governor Olli Rehn, who we have thought for many months has the best chances to emerge victorious.

Still, following the Portuguese government’s decision not to reappoint Mário Centeno to the head of Banco de Portugal, the latter’s emergence as a candidate – as yet unofficial but widely acknowledged – could eventually lead to a neck-and-neck with Rehn, given their equally stellar qualifications.

And then of course there is Croatian National Bank governor Boris Vujčić, who – along with Kazāks – is the most prominent of those candidates from newer members of the euro area.

Our view is that Šadžius and Müller, despite the latter’s able stewardship of his country’s central bank, stand little chance. As we wrote a week ago, “not all candidacies are designed to win; some serve domestic signaling or bargaining purposes.”

Kazāks and Vujčić we assess as having approximately equal chances, but less at succeeding de Guindos and more at following Executive Board member Philip Lane, whose term of office ends exactly one year later.

As for other potential candidates for the number two job at the ECB, the most obvious was Bank of Greece Deputy Governor Christina Papaconstantinou. She might have mounted a strong challenge, backed not only by her personal track record and Greece’s national economic success story, but also her gender, given that the EU will be keen not to see female representation on the Executive Board slip below the current one-third.

However, the election of Greek Minister for the National Economy and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis to head the Eurogroup is seen as foreclosing Papaconstantinou’s possible candidacy for any other top EU job.

There is still Banco de Portugal Vice Governor Clara Raposo. As we wrote a week ago, it is not unthinkable that Lisbon has avoided committing to Centeno in favor of “the ability to adjust its stance if gender considerations — the one dimension on which an alternative Portuguese candidacy would differ — become decisive later in the process.”

For the moment, there is no clear indication that this is the case. In any event, member states have until January 9 to put forward candidates. The Eurogroup will then take the matter up at its January 19 meeting and is expected to coalesce around a preferred contender, ahead of the Council of the European Union’s recommendation to the European Council.

The European Council appoints the victor, acting on that recommendation and after consulting the European Parliament and the ECB’s Governing Council. The Parliament, as in the past, could easily use the process to protest the lack of gender balance.