Exclusive: Dutch Debt Head: “Not Very Concerned” About Pension Reform Impact, Partly Priced In

12 December 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The Dutch State Treasury Agency is “not very concerned” about the impact of the country’s pension reform on the long end of the curve, given mitigating factors and the fact that part of the effect has already been priced in, according to DSTA Agent Saskia van Dun.

In an interview with Econostream on 11 December (transcript here), van Dun was asked about the statement in the DSTA’s 2026 Funding Outlook, released today, that the €50 billion call on capital markets could be increased in the event of a significant upward revision to borrowing needs. “Only if there were really significant increases in funding needs might we consider raising the call on the capital markets,” she said.

Van Dun stressed that such a move would be a “last resort,” underlining the agency’s strong preference to stick to the current €50 billion target. “We have also set the funding need, including the cash deficit, at a level that doesn’t suggest many changes,” she added.

Turning to the maturity selection of the DSL expected to be issued with a maturity beyond 10 years, van Dun said decisions would be guided by the aim of reducing the average maturity of Dutch government bonds from eight to 7.5 years.

“To achieve this, we need to adjust issuance,” she said. “If we issue a very long bond, we wouldn’t get there.”

She noted, however, that there was no need to reach the target immediately and that the adjustment could be gradual.

On green bonds, van Dun said the DSTA was currently evaluating its green bond program, with the results due to be published in 2026. That review would determine whether an existing green bond would be reopened next year or whether a new one would be issued in subsequent years, she said.

“We don’t know the exact year. I could imagine that a green bond could be one of our ‘to-be-determined’ DSLs, and if we issue a new one, it would be in one of the following years,” she added.

Asked whether a 30-year bond was unlikely to be selected as one of the maturities for the €14 billion in DSLs still to be determined, van Dun pointed to the agency’s strategy of issuing a 30-year bond roughly every five years.

Given that the last such bond was issued in 2025, the next one would not be expected for another five years, she said. She added that the lower minimum target for average maturity would also influence those decisions.

Addressing the impact of pension reform on demand for long-dated bonds, van Dun acknowledged that there could be some effect, particularly in the 30-year and ultra-long segments.

“We have seen some steepening of the 10- to 30-year spread, and the Dutch curve has steepened a bit more than the German one,” she said. “We think some of the impact is already priced in.”

She added that the DSTA continued to see strong demand in the 30-year sector, partly reflecting the Netherlands’ AAA rating. Despite the reform, she said pension funds would still need exposure at the 30-year point, while other investor types would remain active.

“So, we see enough mitigating factors to reduce the impact of the transition,” she said.

Van Dun described the reform’s effect as a “gradual process,” noting that pension funds would have time to transition to the new system. While acknowledging that the reform would have an impact that the agency was “not blind” to and would continue to monitor, she reiterated that she was “not very concerned.”

“We have just issued a liquid 30-year bond, and we still see strong demand,” she said. “And since we likely won’t issue another 30-year bond for the next five years if we follow our usual strategy, we are not very concerned.”

Asked where investor demand was strongest along the curve, van Dun said it remained solid across all maturities.