ECB Tone Meter Update: Governing Council Tone Rises Above 0 for First Time This Cycle, Entering Marginally Hawkish Territory

10 December 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB’s Governing Council’s tone in the ECB Tone Meter moved above 0 on Wednesday for the first time this cycle, following comments from an Executive Board member who opened the door to an interest rate hike as the next move and a shift by several previously dovish Council members who now explicitly support holding rates steady in December.

The index currently stands at +0.01, which technically places it in hawkish territory but only by a single decimal point. This means the tone is neutral in practical terms, with merely the faintest hawkish tilt. The move is therefore extremely marginal and should not necessarily be interpreted as a meaningful shift in stance.

However, the index had been trending higher toward hawkish territory in recent weeks, but until now had remained neutral with a dovish bias, staying just below the 0 threshold.

Last week it nearly reached that level, but ultimately fell short after dovish remarks on 4 December by Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, who had been silent for an extended period and therefore absent from the calculation. When he finally spoke, he outlined a downside scenario in which the ECB “will need to act”, making his newly revealed stance both clearly dovish and newly influential, thus pulling the index down.

Momentum shifted shortly after when Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel gave a notably hawkish interview on 8 December, saying she was “rather comfortable” with market expectations that a hike could be the next move.

Schnabel’s remarks triggered a wave of reactions from other Governing Council members, like Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Šimkus and Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau. Previously, however, both had already been sounding more neutral.

On Wednesday, Šimkus delivered his clearest statement yet against changing rates in December, saying there was “no need for a change in interest rates—not only at the next meeting in December, but also in further meetings.” Villeroy likewise said it would “probably be wise to maintain rates at the favorable level they are currently at,” while still wanting to keep all options open for future decisions.

These more explicit endorsements of holding rates in December lifted the index further, and combined with the significant upward push from Schnabel’s hike-related remarks—given her weight in the calculation—helped drive the ECB Tone Meter above the 0 mark for the first time this cycle.