ECB Tone Meter Weekly Update: Slight Hawkish Shift in the Week of 24–28 November

28 November 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The ECB Tone Meter moved slightly hawkish this week, with the Governing Council reading at -0.09, which we classify as broadly neutral but still with a marginal dovish tilt, and the Executive Board at +0.20, which we view as neutral with a marginal hawkish lean.

This compares with last week’s readings of –0.20 for the Governing Council and +0.11 for the Executive Board. Overall communication this week pointed to a firm hold stance and a further fading of any easing bias.

Biggest Movers of the Week: Lane, de Guindos and Kazāks

The most significant swing came from two Executive Board members, whose less-dovish tone and heavier weighting in the index helped lift the overall reading.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, who had remained largely silent on monetary policy throughout the month, delivered two sets of remarks on Wednesday.

In his first appearance, on a podcast, he sounded marginally hawkish, noting that it was too soon to “drop the mic” on inflation and emphasizing that non-energy inflation at 2.5% still had to fall to ensure a sustainable return to target. His stress on lingering wage pressures and the need for “more work” next year counted against an easing bias.

He dialed this back a touch later in the day at an event in Paris, where his customary dovishness was again more visible. Still, the net effect of the two interventions tilted slightly hawkish, helping to push the Tone Meter in that direction.

Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos had earlier in the week said higher tariffs were “disinflationary” in the short term and would also “depress growth,” while only cautiously acknowledging that this might change over a longer horizon.

However, de Guindos’s later remarks in Zaragoza, Spain, contained none of these dovish elements, placing his score squarely in neutral territory and giving the index another slight upward nudge.

After more than a month of silence, Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks returned with a tone more hawkish than before, warning that upside inflation risks should not be dismissed, arguing that there was currently no case for an additional rate cut, and underscoring that core inflation remained “well above 2%.”

Dominant Theme’s in the Week’s Communication: Stronger Pushback Against Cuts

Kazāks wasn’t alone. Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller also pushed back against further rate reductions, repeating his earlier stance that “we shouldn’t let ourselves be swayed too much, even if in the short term we’re a little under 2%.”

Croatian National Bank Governor Boris Vujčić was similarly clear, saying the ECB should not move rates “if we don’t see persistent pressure for inflation to come up or down.”

Others, such as Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf, remained consistent with last week’s concerns, saying he was “a bit” worried about services and food inflation.

Across the week, ECB communication pointed strongly to a continued hold, with a visibly diminished appetite for additional easing. Although some Executive Board members continue to invoke dovish arguments that could, in theory, justify further cuts, there were no explicit calls for a rate reduction — nor anything close to it.