ECB’s de Guindos: Growth Risks Now Balanced, New Data Could Surprise in Either Direction

21 November 2025

By Marta Vilar – BILBAO, Spain (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Friday that risks to economic growth were now balanced, with incoming data having the potential to surprise in either direction.

Speaking at the Deusto University in Bilbao, de Guindos noted that the euro area’s expected growth was not far from its potential. He highlighted the possible impact of a rise in cheaper Chinese exports, a trend he said was already underway.

Unlike six months ago, when risks were clearly tilted to the downside, growth risks were now even, he said, with new data just as likely to come in stronger as weaker.

He emphasized that inflation dynamics were favorable, with both headline and core measures moving toward 2%. Services inflation was gradually approaching 3%, and wage growth was also converging toward a level consistent with the ECB’s target, he said.

Inflation news was positive, while developments in economic activity were “neither particularly good nor particularly bad,” he added.

De Guindos noted that banks remained cautious in their lending conditions and continued to apply stricter loan criteria, though they had been passing on lower interest rates.

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