ECB’s Sleijpen: Projections and Incoming Data Provide No Case for Rate Move

17 November 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Olaf Sleijpen said on Monday that, based on the ECB’s latest projections and the information gathered since September, there was no justification for adjusting interest rates.

In an interview with the FT, Sleijpen, who heads De Nederlandsche Bank, said that monetary policy had moved to a “slightly better” place since June, and noted that trade-related uncertainty had eased since then, while economic growth had surpassed expectations.

He said inflation was hovering near the ECB’s 2% target and pointed to the staff projections, their associated uncertainties, and the data received since September as all supporting the decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

Inflation risks were balanced, he said, stressing that the “high level of uncertainty” required the ECB to remain data-driven and to decide policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

According to Sleijpen, the projected six-quarter undershoot of inflation did not on its own warrant another rate cut, as it largely reflected lower energy prices and a stronger euro while household inflation expectations remained steady.

He emphasized that the ECB needed to stay alert to ensure its assessment held up, recalling the institution’s error in 2022 when it viewed the surge in inflation as temporary.

“For me, it [inflationary surge in 2022] is a lesson that you should be vigilant and challenge constantly if this is temporary and to what extent is it feeding through to the economy,” he said, and added that this recent experience demonstrated that “a shock can feed into the rest of the economy very fast”.