ECB Insight: The Race for de Guindos’ Seat Begins with Centeno Quietly Making His Availability Known

13 November 2025

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – The process to replace European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos is now officially underway, but only just. No candidacies have yet been tabled, and Eurozone finance ministers have been at pains to stress that Wednesday’s Eurogroup meeting in Brussels dealt solely with the timetable, not with names.

Formally, that is true. Politically, the race has already started.

The opening choreography was revealing. Finland immediately and emphatically endorsed Olli Rehn, with Finance Minister Riikka Purra leaving no doubt about Helsinki’s position.

Portugal, by contrast, adopted a studied ambiguity, with Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento welcoming the prospect of a Portuguese figure in international roles while maintaining that it was too early to discuss individuals.

This contrast was not accidental. Mário Centeno has spent the last few weeks quietly letting it be known that he is available and expects to be Portugal’s candidate. And yet, Lisbon’s messaging in Brussels fell short of the clear endorsement that Helsinki offered Rehn.

The gap between Centeno’s readiness and the government’s caution is one of the early dynamics defining this contest.

Centeno’s case rests on several arguments besides his unquestionably sterling academic and professional qualifications. One is that geography matters. If, as appears increasingly likely, the presidency in 2027 goes to a Northern European, then a Southern European should hold the vice presidency.

Though most observers would agree that, as Austrian National Bank Governor Martin Kocher told Econostream in a recent interview, actual qualifications must take primacy over geographic origin, the latter matters too. It is no accident that the last three ECB vice presidents were all from Southern Europe.

A further argument wielded by those supporting Centeno is that Portugal is underrepresented in the euro area’s monetary and macro-financial ecosystem, whereas Finland is not.

Portugal does hold a senior financial-governance post in the European Commission through Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque, but that is political representation; it does not translate into a presence within the ECB-centered institutions that shape perceptions of balance when governments decide these appointments.

Finland, by contrast, has deep embeddedness in this ecosystem: Olli Rehn serves as vice-chair of the ESRB, and Tuomas Saarenheimo chairs the Eurogroup Working Group — the body that shapes ministerial decision-making.

Finland also holds senior roles on key supervisory and macro-prudential committees. None of these bodies decide the ECB vice presidency, but collectively they contribute to a perception in other capitals that Helsinki already has significant weight in the system, whereas Lisbon does not.

So it is that neither of these pro-Centeno arguments is frivolous, and the geographic balance argument has a strong record of shaping past appointments. But the weakness of Centeno’s candidacy (as we argued in July, when his prospects looked remote) is that at least for now, he speaks these arguments more loudly than his government does. That remains true, although perhaps less true than it was.

Lisbon did not even back him for another term at Banco de Portugal, an omission that some may view as undermining the implicit claim that he enjoys unified domestic support for a step up to the ECB Board.

Still, the situation today differs from July in two important ways. First, Centeno’s continued signaling has created a sense of inevitability around his bid that Lisbon may find increasingly awkward to contradict. As Finance Minister Miranda told media yesterday in Brussels, Portugal “is always pleased when a Portuguese person can reach an international position.”

Indeed, we expect Lisbon to strengthen its backing of Centeno no later than next month, unless Rehn acquires the sort of early invincibility that can close a contest before it fully begins.

Second, the field is unusually crowded, with several governments floating or quietly testing names. Croatia is promoting Boris Vujčić on the basis of enlargement-era representation. Greece has Christina Papaconstantinou, whose gender and financial crisis pedigree appeal to some governments. Latvia has Mārtiņš Kazāks, academically credentialed and respected in Council debates.

All are competent; none is a consensus figure yet.

And then there is Rehn: experienced, well connected, and supported early and forcefully by his government. He is widely viewed as the frontrunner for now.

Substantively, the two men would not play identical roles on the Executive Board. Centeno would be the more natural counterweight to a relatively hawkish president. At the same time, his record of supporting fiscal consolidation during the years of the sovereign debt crisis gives him credibility in some Northern capitals.

Rehn, for his part, has been notably dovish for much of the past two years, but this has not always been the case; during the first half of 2023, Econostream even ranked him among the hawks on the Governing Council.

This phase of the procedure is, however, highly fluid. The decisive part of the process comes only after governments formally nominate names at the next meeting, after which Ecofin ministers will attempt to converge on a single candidate.

National lobbying intensifies in this period, and past episodes have shown that early favorites can weaken. In 2018, Philip Lane, initially seen as the natural choice for vice president, was overtaken by Luis de Guindos once political bargaining hardened. And conversely, candidates who start in secondary positions can consolidate support rapidly if the politics shift.

The larger context also matters. This is the first of four, possibly five major Executive Board selections within two years, followed by the replacements for Philip Lane in mid-2027 and for Christine Lagarde five months later.

Governments are already thinking about the broader package, even if unofficially. Some capitals will want to conserve leverage for the presidency, and that will affect how hard they are prepared to push now.

This cuts both ways for Centeno. On the one hand, his geography-based argument becomes more potent if the presidency is indeed destined for Northern Europe. On the other hand, if Portugal is perceived as targeting a single seat while others are thinking in terms of multi-year sequencing, he may find himself outmuscled by governments playing a longer strategic game.

For now, what can be said with confidence is that Wednesday marked the transition from speculation to process. The campaign is real. Rehn starts strong. Centeno has placed his marker, backed by a CV the equal of Rehn’s, but his government has not yet matched his enthusiasm. Other candidates hover in the background.

The next four to six weeks will determine which of these names hardens into a credible bid and which fade into bargaining chips for the reshuffle to come.