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ECB’s Scicluna: “Onus Is on Those Who Want to Cut Further to Convince the Rest of Us”

17 October 2025

ECB’s Scicluna: “Onus Is on Those Who Want to Cut Further to Convince the Rest of Us”
Edward Scicluna, governor of the Central Bank of Malta, attending the session titled Assessing the costs of inflation at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, 27 June 2023 in Sintra, Portugal. Photo by the ECB under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

By David Barwick – FRANKFURT (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Edward Scicluna said he doesn’t expect any change to interest rates this month, while signaling that the December policy meeting will feature a more heated discussion on the basis of new data and projections.

“For me, it would need convincing arguments to support another cut,” the Maltese central-bank governor told Bloomberg in an interview published Friday. “The onus is on those who want to cut further to convince the rest of us.”

He said he expects a “more intense” debate in December, when updated ECB staff projections are on hand, but doesn’t foresee any move at the October 29-30 meeting in Florence, Italy

“I would be very surprised if there were a major push in one or the other direction at our next meeting,” he said. “The overall picture hasn’t changed that much in recent weeks to justify acting now.”

Scicluna said the euro area remains “in a very sensitive balance.” The economy is “more resilient than expected,” though some downside risks persist, he said. With the deposit facility rate at 2%, widely seen as neutral, the ECB can take its time to judge the effects of its earlier easing, he said. “We are in a good position to monitor how this is playing out.”

Recent data broadly confirm the baseline of the September projections, which foresaw inflation at 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027 alongside improving growth momentum, he said.

Scicluna also discussed uncertainty about the effect of global trade measures. “It’s not so straightforward whether higher trade tariffs will be disinflationary or inflationary,” he said. “The jury is still out, and we shouldn’t jump to conclusions as this is crucial.”

He added that the December projections will extend to 2028 and provide a fuller picture for policy decisions. “In December we will have much more data to reassess the situation,” he said. “If we want to take a decision this would be the time. That doesn’t mean we will act in December, but the discussion might be more intense.”