ECB’s Kocher: “As Long as Nothing Changes Dramatically, I Think We Are in a Good Place”

16 October 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Governing Council member Martin Kocher said on Thursday that interest rates would remain unchanged unless a significant shock materialized.

In an interview with CNBC, Kocher, who heads the Austrian National Bank, said that “as long as nothing changes dramatically, I think we are in a good place for what interest rate policy concerns.”

He pointed to the stability of recent inflation, growth figures, forecasts and market expectations as justification for holding steady.

“But, of course, things might change quickly; it’s important to keep your powder dry and be able to act at any moment in time,” he added.

Kocher highlighted lower savings rates and rising government spending as potential drivers of stronger growth.

“The expectation at the moment is at 1% growth for the euro area next year, but it might also be higher,” he said. “So, the upside and the downside risks for growth are quite balanced in my view at the moment.”

On trade, he warned that reduced tensions of late might not last, and added that he “would not bet” on it staying this way. “There might be changes that only trickle down over time, but we’ll have to wait and see,” he said.

He also noted that services inflation remained above the ECB’s 2% target, calling it a reminder to remain vigilant. Still, he emphasized that long-term inflation expectations were well anchored and that, while risks existed, there was no immediate reason to expect inflation to overshoot the target.

Regarding Lagarde’ refusal to rule out further easing, Kocher said this should be understood as maintaining optionality rather than as a “dovish” stance.

“We can’t exclude that there is something to happen that might make us move,” he said, though he observed that the current easing cycle was “close to an end or at its end.”

Asked about his own approach to monetary policy, Kocher said his academic background as a professor shaped his reliance on evidence and data when making decisions.