ECB’s de Guindos: Growth to Be Moderate, But Risks More Balanced Than Before Summer

18 September 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday that euro area growth was likely to remain moderate in the coming months amd that risks were now more evenly balanced than before the summer.

Speaking at an MNI Connect event, de Guindos highlighted persistent uncertainty stemming from geopolitical risks and pointed to a possible rise in Chinese exports to Europe.

“There are other elements that create some uncertainty, for instance the performance and behaviour of European households in terms of consumption, which should be the main driver of growth,” he said.

Given this “high uncertainty,” the ECB should take a “very prudent approach” with respect to future decisions, he said, adding that the situation could be “extremely difficult over the next months.”

The ECB’s latest projections suggest more growth in 2025 and less in 2026, he said, and noted that still “growth is going to be moderate.”

Strong GDP data in the first half of the year were due to Ireland’s contribution and to front-loading related to trade, he said.

“For the rest of the year we believe growth will not be very different to the second quarter,” he said. “We have clearly express that now risks are much more balanced than before.”

Inflation developments had been very positive, according to de Guindos, who said that services inflation’s evolution had also been encouraging.

The level of interest rates was “appropriate” given the evolution of inflation, the inflation outlook and the transmission of monetary policy, he said.