ECB Comment Recap: Policymakers Signal Pause Now, Easing Bias Remains — But Not All on Board

16 July 2025

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – Following is a collection of views expressed by ECB Governing Council members on various topics of high relevance related to next week’s meeting and the further evolution of monetary policy:

July meeting:

Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 7 July: A pause or a cut in July are both ‘conceivable’.
Central Bank of Malta Acting Governor Alexander Demarco – 2 July: July cut not necessary, a pause would ‘hold the powder a bit dry.’
Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Šimkus – 12 June: ‘it’s important to take a pause and to look at where we’re move systemically.’
Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks – 6 June: ‘We don’t get much data between now and the July meeting, so it may well be the case that we pause.’
National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 1 July: ‘We hope that by July 9 we have no more uncertainty [about trade], but it is not guaranteed. We have to see how things play out.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 4 July: ECB in a ‘good position’, this is not a question limited to July or September.

September meeting:

Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Šimkus – 30 June: ‘I don’t know if we’ll have all the information, we need by September, but I remain open to every possibility.’

Further easing:

Banca d'Italia Governor Fabio Panetta – 11 July: ‘If downside risks to growth were to strengthen disinflationary trends, it would be appropriate to continue with monetary easing.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 11 July: ‘There would only be a case for another rate cut if we saw signs of a material deviation of inflation from our target at the medium term.’
Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 7 July: ‘I don’t know if 25bp will do the trick. But the amount and timing of further cuts are difficult to say. It all depends on how things play out in terms of investment, labour market, and of course prices at the end.’
Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 7 July: ‘If economic growth is flat in the next couple of quarters, investment doesn’t pick up, and inflation remains close to 1%, we will have to do something.’
Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks – 1 July: ‘If rates would move, they might go down rather than up ... It’s more about signalling and fine-tuning. It could also be an insurance cut, to ensure that inflation moves back to 2% after falling short in early 2026.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 1 July: ‘An additional cut is not going to help the economy improve.’
National Bank of Belgium Governor Pierre Wunsch – 30 June: If economy does not recover as expected in the projections, ‘then we may have to be a bit more supportive.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 24 June: ‘If that [compensation of higher oil prices via euro appreciation] was confirmed, it could possibly lead in the next six months to a further accommodation.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau– 19 June: ‘if monetary policy were to move in the next six months, it could be more in the direction of accommodation.’
Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 22 June: ‘Supply and demand conditions are still too weak to allow a return to the target without further stimulus.’
Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras – 17 June: ‘If the European economy weakens further, if inflation decreases further, below the target – something we don’t want – then we may proceed to further rate cuts, but we are data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting.’
Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Šimkus – 12 June: Cannot dismiss possibility of a further cut this year due to ‘an increased risk that inflation may be lower than the medium-term target.’
Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks – 11 June: ‘Will it [ensuring inflation stays at 2%] require some further cuts for fine tuning? Quite likely.’
Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks – 6 June: ‘In terms of rate cutting, we’ve done a lot. If there are further cuts, they will be fine-tuning, unless we shift out of the baseline scenario.’
Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 6 June: ‘[I]t is likely that the cutting cycle will continue in 2025, but we don’t know at what pace, and we will decide meeting by meeting.’

Against more easing:

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 11 July: Interest rates are ‘in a good place, and the bar for another rate cut is very high … Therefore, from today’s perspective, a further rate is not appropriate.’
Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann – 9 July: There is ‘no reason at the moment why a further rate cut should take place – definitely not at the next meeting, and also for the rest of the year.’

General comments about future monetary policy steps:

National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 8 July: New data will determine what the next steps should be, whether further cuts or holding steady.
Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller – 1 July: ‘it’s quite reasonable for now to keep rates where they are and to monitor further developments – also as the level of rates is low enough and not holding back the recovery.’
Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 1 July: ‘I will not speculate which direction we are going but I believe now we are rather comfortable at 2%, so we can check what will come over the next couple of weeks and then take a decision.’
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane – 1 July: ‘we do have to stand ready to make sure that any [inflation] deviation we see does not become embedded, does not change the medium-term picture.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 30 June: ECB in the ‘correct’ position, but have to keep ‘all options open.’
De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot – 27 June: ‘It may well be that the ECB has to hold rates for quite some time to come as long as you don’t know which way these shocks will actually play out on the medium-term outlook.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 26 June: ‘Monetary policy cycle is coming to an end as medium-term inflation stabilises at target.’
National Bank of Slovakia Governor Peter Kažimír – 24 June: ‘I would not touch rates until we have much more clarity with respect to the scenarios of the trade wars.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 24 June: ‘I believe the current level of interest rates, as President Lagarde said, puts us in a good position to deal with this uncertainty.’
ECB President Christine Lagarde – 23 June: ‘At current interest rate levels, we believe that we are in a good position to navigate the uncertainty circumstances.’
Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 16 June: ‘Given the current uncertainty, cautious monetary policy and communication are still recommended.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 12 June: ‘this monetary policy cycle is coming to an end, as medium-term inflation is stabilising around target.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau– June 10: ‘this favourable zone does not mean a comfortable zone or a static zone: we will remain pragmatic and data-driven, and as agile as necessary.’
National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – June 10: ‘We feel that we are now in a very good position. It’s worth now waiting to get more data and in my view, to get another projection before we decide where we want to go and hopefully by that time get more clarity on the trade relationships.’
Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann – 9 June: ‘It could be that the pause lasts a while … If economic developments worsen, there could be further interest rate cuts.’
National Bank of Slovakia Governor Peter Kažimír – 9 June: ‘As things stand now, I think we’re nearly done with, if not already, at the end of the easing cycle.’
Banco de España Governor José Luis Escrivá – 8 June: ‘The central scenario we’re operating with – GDP growth around 1%, inflation at 2% - could require, if it is confirmed, some fine-tuning.’
National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 8 June: ‘A few tens of basis points’ deviation on either side of the target is not a problem. Because you will always have small deviations. This is not precision surgery.’
Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 8 June: ECB can ‘now take time to look at the situation first.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 7 June: ECB is ‘in a good place’ with respect to inflation.
National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 7 June: ‘I would agree that we are nearly done. As she [ECB President Christine Lagarde] said, we are now in a good position.’
Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras – 6 June: The ECB is ‘nearly done, but with such uncertainty worldwide you can never say it’s done.’
Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller – 6 June: Lagarde ‘summarised it nicely yesterday saying that we have probably almost finished the rate-cutting cycle this time.’
ECB President Christine Lagarde – 5 June: ‘I think we are getting to the end of the monetary policy cycle that was responding to compounded shocks, including the illegitimate war in Ukraine, and the energy crisis.’
ECB President Christine Lagarde – 5 June: the ECB is in a ‘good position’ to deal with uncertainty.

Market expectations of further steps:

National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 8 July: Expectations of one more cut are ‘fine’, but don’t have to materialise before the end of 2025.
National Bank of Belgium Governor Pierre Wunsch – 2 July: I do not ‘disagree with market pricing for interest rates.’
Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks – 11 June: Market expectations of ‘one more cut or something like that’ were ‘not out of the realm of the baseline. But exactly how and when will very much depend on how the economy develops, especially at this time of very high uncertainty.’

Monetary policy stance:

Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann – 9 July: ‘Quite likely’ that the ECB is already in expansionary territory.
Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 7 July: ‘with the current numbers we will still be restrictive at 2%.’
Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras – 5 July: ‘Over the past year, as inflation has eased, we have been able to largely remove policy restrictiveness.’
Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller – 1 July: ‘For the moment it’s not obvious to me that we need to go into expansionary territory.’
De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot – 26 June: Current rates neither restrictive nor stimulative, ‘that’s a good place to be’.
National Bank of Slovakia Governor Peter Kažimír – 24 June: The ECB is now at or around neutral territory.
Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 19 June: ‘We are now in a neutral territory of monetary policy, 2% is our deposit rate.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 19 June: ECB now entered a ‘territory close to the neutral stance.’
Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 8 June: ECB ‘no longer restrictive’
National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 7 June: Rates now ‘broadly neutral’ and ‘not restraining growth anymore’.
Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann – 6 June: Rates are now in accommodative territory, the nominal neutral rate is currently around 3%.
Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Šimkus – 6 June: Interest rates now at neutral

Inflation current level:

Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller – 1 July: Inflation ‘basically at target’.
ECB President Christine Lagarde – July 1: Won’t say mission is accomplished, but ‘target is reached.’
Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 1 July: ECB currently in ‘calm waters … It doesn’t mean we should be too complacent.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 19 June: ‘now we think that we have achieved our target. Now inflation is 1.9% and we are confident that it will be stable around these levels.’
Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 16 June: ‘the 2% mark is likely to be reached this year.’
ECB President Christine Lagarde – 14 June: ECB is ‘within reach of the 2% medium-term inflation target that we have defined as price stability.’
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 13 June: ‘looking at headline inflation, we are in a good place: inflation has returned to around 2%, which is our medium-term target.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 7 June: ‘I think we’ve made great progress … But we do see that even the more persistent components are coming down, and that is very good news.’
Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Šimkus – 6 June: ‘We can rejoice that the unpleasant period of high inflation is over.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 6 June: Europe is ‘indeed winning’ the inflation battle.
Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller – 6 June: Inflation now ‘close’ to 2%, could consider target almost achieved.

Inflation projections:

Bank of Lithuania Governor Gediminas Šimkus – 30 June: ‘Nothing has fundamentally changed since June. The September projections may be fairly similar to June’s, maybe except the euro is even stronger.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 27 June: ‘If we look at core inflation, we are relatively confident that we will meet the inflation target, and that’s why we’ve lowered interest rates’.
ECB President Christine Lagarde – 23 June: ‘Most indicators of underlying inflation continue to suggest that inflation will stabilise sustainability at our 2% medium-term target.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy – 19 June: The return to 2% inflation in 2027 is to be triggered partly by the new ETS.
Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks – 6 June: ‘The staff forecast expects inflation to remain below 2% for some time so we have to remain vigilant and see what happens in the economy.’
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 6 June: ‘In the short term, inflation is slowing below the ECB’s objective and more than the ECB forecast in March.’
ECB President Christine Lagarde – 5 June: ‘For those in doubt, headline inflation in 2026 is clearly oil and gas, and the value of the euro.’

Inflation risks:

National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 8 July: Risks for inflation seem to be two-sided now.
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 2 July: Risks are two-sided, but I am more worried about a potential undershoot.
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 30 June: ‘We must be vigilant now to both directions. On one hand, of course, we have to closely monitor geopolitical developments and price developments in the energy markets in particular. On the other hand, risks of inflation undershooting our target should neither be underestimated.’
National Bank of Slovakia Governor Peter Kažimír – 9 June: ‘For now, it would be a mistake to neglect upside inflation risks. We can’t simply assume the path we’re on will be without obstacles … In short, risks in both directions remain very much alive.’
National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 8 June: Inflation risks are ‘pretty balanced’.

Risk of undershooting:

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 11 July: ‘I see no signs’ of a material deviation of inflation from our target over the medium term.
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 2 July: I am ‘quite concerned about inflation being below target for an extended period of time.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 1 July: ‘The possibility of undershooting is not big, it is quite limited.’
Banca d'Italia Governor Fabio Panetta – 18 June: projections ‘for the coming months indicate that inflation is likely to remain below the 2% target for an extended period, alongside persistently weak economic activity.’
Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 16 June: ‘A sustained undershoot is unlikely. Underlying inflation, and especially the increase in services prices, is too high for that.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 12 June: The situation is a ‘very clear case of looking through temporary deviations of headline inflation from target.’
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane – 11 June: ‘this cut helps ensure that the projected negative inflation deviation over the next eighteen months remains temporary and does not convert into a longer-term deviation of inflation from the target.’
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 10 June: ‘In the short term, inflation will slow below the ECB’s objective mainly due to lower energy prices and a stronger exchange rate.’
Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 6 June: ‘Inflation is now below 2% and this downward trend will worsen until early next year, when it will get close to the dangerous level of 1%, or slightly above.’

Impact of tariffs on inflation:

Banca d'Italia Governor Fabio Panetta – 11 July: ‘A marked decline in the demand for Europea products in the US and a rerouting of Chinese goods towards our markets would exert downward pressure on prices’.
Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 7 July: ‘I don’t see how we could end up with supply chain disruptions unless we entered a war with suppliers of specific goods.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 26 June: ‘Tariffs can be amplified through global value chains posing upside risks to inflation.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 19 June: ‘Our latest projections show that we shouldn’t fear in Europe, contrary to the US, an inflationary effect of tariffs.’
De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot – 18 June: Short-term impact of tariffs on inflation would be to the downside, but in the longer term ‘tariff themselves tend to raise prices.’
Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks – 11 June: ‘So far, we do not see massive supply chain problems for Europe, and it seems that the deflationary effect could dominate, but the final outcome is still an open question.’
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 10 June: ‘the effects of tariffs on inflation are highly uncertain’ and depend on tariff levels, sector and countries affected, as well as the reorganisation of global trade.
Banco de España Governor José Luis Escrivá – 8 June: ‘a disruption in global trade relations and increased spending on defence and infrastructure could raise inflation in the medium term.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 6 June: ‘we don’t have an effect of increasing inflation in Europe [from tariffs].’
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 6 June: ‘the overall impact of tariffs on inflation in the euro area is highly uncertain in the medium term.’

Trade diversion of Chinese goods:

ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 30 June: ‘The agreement reached between the US and China could affect us significantly. Trade may be redirected. If the US imposes high tariffs on China, it’s logical that China will look for other markets.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 12 June: Latest research revealed that the magnitude of a trade diversion’s inflationary impact will be ‘actually rather small’, namely a cumulative 0.2% over three years.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 7 June: ‘This effect is actually quantitatively quite small … [in that event] you can be quite sure that there would be counteracting measures coming from the European Union.’
Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras – 6 June: It’s likely that China will divert cheap exports to Europe and that would imply more deflation.

Wages and services inflation:

Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel – 9 July: ‘Services inflation, which continues to be elevated, still warrants caution. Encouragingly, though, it has eased significantly in recent months. And based on the latest data on wage developments, price pressures in the services sector are expected to decline further.’
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane – 25 June: Battle against inflation not ‘entirely over, we need to see services inflation come down.’
ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane – 24 June: ‘first, the projection errors for inflation, including for the services subcomponent, have been relatively small, during the disinflation process; second, both the wage tracker data and survey indicators suggest that further deceleration in wage growth can be expected in both 2025 and 2026, facilitating further declines in services inflation.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 24 June: ‘And in services, which was our main concern, we have also seen a steady slowdown, just like in wage growth.’
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 7 June: Wage growth still ‘too high’, services inflation remains elevated and ‘domestic inflation generally’ persisting on the upside.

Exchange rate:

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 11 July: ‘the fear of the exchange rate appreciation putting downward pressure on underlying inflation is exaggerated in my view, as the pass-through is likely to be limited.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 9 July: ‘I hope it [the exchange rate] stabilises to some extent, and it will not have an additional negative impact.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 4 July: Euro strength ‘could increase the risk of undershooting our target.’
Central Bank of Malta Acting Governor Alexander Demarco – 2 July: ‘It’s something that we need to monitor, mostly, perhaps, the speed of the appreciation. But we’re still not at a level where there are concerns.’
Latvijas Banka Governor Mārtiņš Kazāks – 1 July: If the euro appreciates further against the US dollar, inflation and exports would decrease further and that could tip the balance towards another rate reduction.
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 1 July: ‘I think that 1.17 and 1.20 [EUR:USD] is something that we can overlook a little bit. Something beyond that, it would be much more complicated, but 1.20 is perfectly acceptable.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 19 June: A 10% increase in the exchange rate would largely compensate the inflationary impact of a €10 increase of the oil price, ‘which we are still quite far from as of today.’
Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau – 17 June: The exchange rate ‘plays against inflation because we have seen an appreciation not since last Thursday but in the more recent weeks. We should incorporate this analysis of the exchange rate in our monetary policy decision.’
National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 8 June: Unlikely that the euro would have second-round effects on inflation unless its strength lasts a few quarters.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 7 June: impact of exchange rate on inflation ‘not as big as maybe some people believe.’

Economic growth:

ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 11 July: ‘the risks to the growth outlook in the euro area are now more balanced.’
National Bank of Belgium Governor Pierre Wunsch – 2 July: ‘I am not overly concerned about growth. Recent national PMI numbers were rather comforting. German fiscal plans are also game changing. Major fiscal expansion by a country that can afford it provides a major boost.’
National Bank of Belgium Governor Pierre Wunsch – 30 June: ‘We have only one objective, which is inflation, but if growth would remain on the downside, then there might be room for a little bit more action.’
ECB President Christine Lagarde – 23 June: ‘a swift resolution to trade and geopolitical tensions or a further increase in defence and infrastructure spending could spur activity by more than expected.’
Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 18 June: I am ‘very worried about growth in Europe because it is not coming and if it does not come, inflation will not be 2%’ … economy needs to be stronger in order to be ‘compatible’ with returning to target.
Banca d'Italia Governor Fabio Panetta – 18 June: Economic outlook is facing ‘substantial and difficult-to-quantify risks.’
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 13 June: conditions for euro area economic activity to pick up were still favourable, like wage growth, strong labour markets, easier financing conditions and higher defence spending.
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 12 June: ‘While it is important to predict exactly what will happen [about trade tensions], these developments may well have a dampening impact on growth in the euro area. It is therefore important for us to closely monitor what is happening in the real economy, as an early indicator for the inflation outlook.’
ECB Vice President Luis De Guindos – 12 June: ‘Survey data point overall to weaker prospects in the near term. Higher tariffs and the stronger euro make it harder to export, and high uncertainty is weighing on investment.’
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 10 June: ‘Overall, the risks to economic growth are still pointing towards weaker growth than forecast.’
Eesti Pank Governor Madis Müller – 6 June: The economy is still weak despite it being on its way to recovery.

Defence spending impact:

Banco de Portugal Governor Mário Centeno – 7 July: ‘there is a big risk that the level of investment will fall short than what is projected.’
National Bank of Croatia Governor Boris Vujčić – 1 July: ‘Defence spending – which will increase in Europe, the decision has been made – that will also contribute somewhat to the inflationary pressures’.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel – 12 June: Projections incorporate a ‘relatively conservative estimate’ of the impact of higher government spending.
Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn – 10 June: ‘the positive growth impact of increased defence spending will offset the adverse impact of tariffs in the coming years.’