ECB: Professional Forecasters Revise Inflation and Growth Outlook Down Slightly for 2025

18 October 2024

By Marta Vilar – MADRID (Econostream) – The European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters for the fourth quarter of 2024, published on Friday, showed inflation expectations for 2025 revised down to 1.9% but otherwise unchanged.

‘Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation … were 2.4% for 2024 and 1.9% for both 2025 and 2026. These were unchanged except for a 0.1 percentage point downward revision for 2025, mainly reflecting expectations for lower oil prices’, the ECB said in a press release.

Core inflation in 2024 was revised up marginally, from 2.7% to 2.8%, due to higher-than-expected persistence in services inflation. Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remained unchanged at 2.2% and 2.0%, respectively.

GDP growth also suffered a downward revision for 2025, from 1.3% to 1.2%. This ‘largely reflects a carry-over from weaker than previously expected growth in the second half of 2024’, the ECB said.

The unemployment outlook remained stable at an expected 6.5% in 2024 and 2025, followed by a decline to 6.4% in 2026.